* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * IVO EP092025 08/06/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 41 48 55 61 72 78 73 68 57 50 42 36 30 25 20 N/A V (KT) LAND 35 41 48 55 61 72 78 73 68 57 50 42 36 30 25 20 N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 40 45 50 54 62 67 67 63 57 50 43 35 29 23 18 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 12 14 12 10 18 13 13 15 13 14 12 9 10 9 7 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 1 3 1 -2 -6 -3 -4 -5 -4 0 0 0 0 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 35 25 19 17 357 13 8 15 36 55 54 57 55 68 91 99 109 SST (C) 30.0 29.8 30.2 29.7 30.4 30.1 29.2 26.8 25.9 24.8 24.0 23.0 22.2 21.7 21.4 20.9 21.3 POT. INT. (KT) 169 167 171 166 172 168 158 132 121 110 102 91 83 79 76 70 74 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 6 6 7 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 82 84 84 84 84 80 77 72 72 67 67 63 61 57 52 48 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 11 12 11 12 10 12 10 10 8 7 5 4 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 15 19 13 7 9 5 12 15 21 14 15 -9 -9 -32 -38 -29 -29 200 MB DIV 85 94 96 89 75 84 39 44 6 15 -21 -19 -2 -10 -10 -17 15 700-850 TADV -1 -3 0 2 0 -13 -6 -9 -4 -3 -3 -1 -1 4 3 6 5 LAND (KM) 247 243 247 236 246 337 312 401 492 580 677 772 897 1041 1219 1417 1544 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 98.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 20 20 20 20 18 15 13 10 8 8 8 8 9 10 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 41 45 46 41 34 19 7 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 19 CX,CY: -16/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 51.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 18. 20. 20. 18. 16. 14. 10. 8. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 4. 3. 5. 2. 3. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 12. 6. 1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 20. 26. 37. 43. 38. 33. 22. 15. 7. 1. -5. -10. -15. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.8 98.2 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092025 IVO 08/06/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.88 13.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 6.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.42 4.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 6.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 -10.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.59 5.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 3.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 5.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.37 1.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 2.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.6 0.43 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 3.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 32% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 47% is 7.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.5% 46.7% 32.8% 20.7% 13.9% 32.5% 46.7% 24.5% Logistic: 18.2% 54.2% 37.6% 24.3% 10.1% 43.5% 35.6% 7.4% Bayesian: 9.7% 68.4% 54.4% 35.5% 7.7% 19.1% 6.2% 0.2% Consensus: 14.1% 56.5% 41.6% 26.9% 10.5% 31.7% 29.5% 10.7% DTOPS: 8.0% 20.0% 13.0% 7.0% 3.0% 16.0% 25.0% 4.0% SDCON: 11.0% 38.2% 27.3% 16.9% 6.7% 23.8% 27.2% 7.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092025 IVO 08/06/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##