* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP912025 08/06/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 38 44 57 64 70 68 62 56 51 45 38 30 23 16 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 38 44 57 64 70 68 62 56 51 45 38 30 23 16 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 31 36 40 43 45 44 40 36 31 26 20 16 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 16 14 16 12 11 16 15 14 16 18 15 13 13 13 12 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 -1 1 5 2 -4 -8 -2 -2 -7 -2 -3 -1 -2 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 21 26 21 13 6 3 25 27 44 63 56 54 53 63 69 81 108 SST (C) 29.4 29.9 29.6 30.3 30.0 30.0 30.2 27.6 25.8 24.6 23.7 22.8 21.8 21.4 21.5 21.1 21.0 POT. INT. (KT) 161 167 164 172 168 168 169 141 121 108 99 90 79 75 76 73 72 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.8 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.0 -53.5 -53.0 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 8 6 6 7 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 84 83 85 84 85 83 80 75 74 70 69 65 63 60 60 56 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 10 11 14 13 15 15 15 16 15 14 13 11 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 26 15 16 9 5 16 12 18 18 23 26 9 -5 -17 -35 -34 -44 200 MB DIV 79 79 88 94 100 117 59 60 5 27 13 -8 0 21 -19 -6 14 700-850 TADV 4 -1 -4 -1 2 -5 -6 -9 -4 -1 -3 -2 -1 0 1 3 3 LAND (KM) 329 283 273 271 278 311 393 362 435 521 653 735 847 994 1141 1315 1392 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 96.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 20 20 20 19 17 14 12 9 9 9 10 9 8 8 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 31 39 43 46 42 25 12 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 40.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 2. 8. 16. 22. 27. 27. 27. 25. 23. 20. 17. 15. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 5. 8. 9. 9. 10. 9. 7. 5. 2. 1. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 9. 4. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 19. 32. 39. 45. 43. 37. 31. 26. 20. 13. 5. -2. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.7 96.5 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912025 INVEST 08/06/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 141.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.94 9.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.34 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 7.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 -6.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.59 3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.36 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.6 0.60 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 24.6% 18.2% 0.0% 0.0% 22.9% 25.9% 0.0% Logistic: 4.0% 29.2% 14.4% 7.2% 3.0% 29.5% 37.7% 11.5% Bayesian: 0.4% 12.0% 6.5% 1.3% 0.3% 5.7% 2.4% 0.7% Consensus: 1.5% 21.9% 13.0% 2.9% 1.1% 19.4% 22.0% 4.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 11.0% 6.0% 1.0% 1.0% 8.0% 20.0% 4.0% SDCON: 1.2% 16.4% 9.5% 1.9% 1.0% 13.7% 21.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912025 INVEST 08/06/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##