* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP912025 08/06/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 32 36 47 56 64 65 64 55 51 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 32 36 47 56 64 65 64 55 51 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 31 35 37 37 37 35 32 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 14 12 12 16 11 14 15 14 16 17 17 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 1 0 0 3 2 -2 -4 -4 -5 -6 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 40 26 25 16 15 8 33 32 50 57 55 58 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.8 30.0 29.7 28.9 26.7 25.2 25.4 24.4 22.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 164 161 162 161 166 168 165 155 131 114 116 108 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.1 -53.7 -53.3 -53.6 -53.5 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 7 6 7 5 3 1 1 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 86 86 84 86 86 87 82 79 73 74 72 72 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 12 11 12 15 16 17 16 17 14 14 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 26 13 14 4 10 17 33 29 35 24 28 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 94 84 76 115 101 134 120 55 57 29 0 -20 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 7 0 -2 -1 -1 -11 -9 -11 -4 -7 -4 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 428 385 332 327 318 317 473 472 546 635 746 875 979 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 94.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 19 19 19 19 19 17 15 11 7 7 12 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 28 35 40 45 36 18 9 3 1 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 16 CX,CY: -13/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 10. 18. 26. 31. 32. 31. 32. 30. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 9. 11. 6. 5. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 11. 22. 31. 39. 40. 39. 30. 26. 20. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.4 94.6 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912025 INVEST 08/06/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.91 8.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.36 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 6.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 -6.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 94.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.62 3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.30 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.6 0.56 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.0% 15.9% 0.0% 0.0% 20.9% 20.5% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 3.2% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 3.7% 11.0% 5.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 3.0% Consensus: 0.1% 8.5% 5.9% 0.2% 0.0% 8.2% 10.6% 2.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 5.0% 9.0% 3.0% SDCON: 0.0% 6.7% 4.4% 0.6% 0.0% 6.6% 9.8% 2.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912025 INVEST 08/06/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##