* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP912025 08/06/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 36 46 56 62 67 63 58 51 45 38 32 25 19 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 36 46 56 62 67 63 58 51 45 38 32 25 19 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 27 30 33 37 38 36 33 28 24 20 17 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 20 18 18 17 15 16 16 23 15 12 14 12 13 13 18 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 5 2 0 3 3 0 -5 -1 -1 -6 -3 -5 -3 -7 -3 SHEAR DIR 32 34 24 17 24 15 16 359 25 44 47 46 49 62 90 101 128 SST (C) 29.4 29.8 29.5 29.3 29.9 30.5 30.7 30.9 28.0 25.5 23.3 22.5 21.8 21.6 21.2 21.5 21.6 POT. INT. (KT) 159 165 162 161 167 174 175 174 146 120 97 88 81 78 73 75 77 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -54.1 -54.1 -53.7 -53.4 -53.6 -52.9 -53.3 -52.7 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 6 7 5 8 5 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 85 86 86 84 84 86 84 80 74 70 64 60 53 50 45 43 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 11 12 14 18 18 18 17 17 14 13 11 9 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 54 44 21 6 0 -3 25 14 30 31 37 20 18 27 26 12 9 200 MB DIV 100 108 90 100 111 108 102 45 57 18 5 0 -34 -16 0 -3 0 700-850 TADV 8 10 9 3 -2 -1 0 -5 -8 -1 -2 -2 -2 -1 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 416 400 432 341 284 241 201 316 238 380 587 776 988 1197 1383 1494 1554 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 11.1 11.8 12.6 13.5 15.4 17.6 19.6 21.2 22.2 22.8 23.1 23.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 92.5 93.7 95.1 96.7 98.4 102.1 105.6 108.6 111.4 114.5 117.7 120.7 123.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 15 16 18 20 20 19 16 15 15 15 13 12 10 9 7 9 HEAT CONTENT 14 19 25 30 39 46 34 18 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 725 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 10. 18. 26. 31. 34. 33. 33. 31. 28. 25. 23. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 9. 11. 9. 8. 4. 2. -0. -2. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 21. 31. 37. 42. 38. 33. 26. 20. 13. 7. -0. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.4 92.5 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912025 INVEST 08/06/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.91 8.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.19 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 13.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 -6.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 101.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.66 3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.22 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.6 0.51 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.0% 15.1% 0.0% 0.0% 19.7% 19.2% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 4.8% 1.5% 0.7% 0.2% 4.5% 12.5% 10.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.7% Consensus: 0.1% 8.4% 5.6% 0.3% 0.1% 8.1% 10.6% 3.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 6.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 5.0% 11.0% 2.0% SDCON: 0.0% 7.2% 4.3% 0.6% 0.0% 6.5% 10.8% 2.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912025 INVEST 08/06/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##