* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP912025 08/05/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 40 46 53 56 55 52 49 46 41 36 31 25 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 40 46 53 56 55 52 49 46 41 36 31 25 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 26 27 28 28 28 27 26 24 22 20 17 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 19 21 17 20 21 21 23 28 21 17 11 6 8 9 11 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 6 2 3 1 3 3 -6 0 -1 -2 -4 -2 -1 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 55 47 43 27 28 9 10 14 10 20 28 34 46 84 103 111 111 SST (C) 29.1 29.5 29.5 29.5 28.8 29.6 29.9 30.1 30.4 27.3 24.9 23.4 22.5 21.9 21.7 21.3 21.6 POT. INT. (KT) 157 162 162 162 155 164 167 168 171 138 113 98 88 81 79 74 77 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.5 -54.1 -54.2 -53.7 -53.6 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 6 5 7 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 84 85 86 87 85 86 87 83 77 73 68 62 58 52 48 45 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 68 58 42 29 12 -3 4 16 32 39 41 38 20 23 28 33 18 200 MB DIV 81 100 121 105 102 131 130 99 68 75 7 6 -14 -33 -10 -10 -9 700-850 TADV 4 7 13 6 2 0 -2 -11 -18 -14 -13 -15 -7 -4 -3 -4 0 LAND (KM) 447 429 460 442 395 361 312 307 348 310 429 614 791 983 1180 1368 1512 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.6 11.1 11.7 12.3 13.8 15.8 18.0 19.8 21.2 22.1 22.7 23.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 92.0 93.3 94.7 96.1 97.7 101.2 104.6 107.5 110.0 112.4 115.1 118.0 120.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 15 16 17 20 19 16 14 13 13 13 13 11 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 12 15 20 25 30 41 40 24 12 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 4. 11. 20. 28. 34. 36. 37. 37. 35. 33. 30. 28. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -5. -8. -10. -12. -12. -10. -8. -6. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 15. 21. 28. 31. 30. 27. 24. 21. 16. 11. 6. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.0 92.0 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912025 INVEST 08/05/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.88 7.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.14 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 8.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 -5.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 101.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.66 3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.17 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.6 0.50 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.3% 13.8% 0.0% 0.0% 18.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 10.7% 3.1% 1.5% 0.4% 5.5% 18.3% 18.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.7% Consensus: 0.3% 9.9% 5.6% 0.5% 0.1% 7.9% 6.2% 6.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 8.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 6.0% 8.0% 3.0% SDCON: 0.6% 8.9% 4.8% 0.7% 0.5% 6.9% 7.1% 4.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912025 INVEST 08/05/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##