* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP912025 08/05/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 33 35 40 46 53 57 57 55 52 49 44 40 35 30 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 33 35 40 46 53 57 57 55 52 49 44 40 35 30 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 31 32 32 31 30 29 28 26 24 21 18 15 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 20 20 19 20 23 24 22 20 22 16 8 6 8 10 11 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 4 6 3 1 3 4 -2 -2 0 -1 0 0 -1 4 0 SHEAR DIR 48 47 41 41 23 11 12 22 12 22 19 45 58 90 99 94 95 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.8 29.1 29.5 29.1 29.9 30.3 30.1 27.9 25.4 23.0 22.7 21.7 21.6 21.7 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 154 158 162 159 168 171 168 145 119 93 90 79 78 78 82 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -53.8 -53.5 -54.1 -54.2 -53.3 -53.6 -52.7 -53.2 -52.6 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 4 4 6 5 7 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 86 85 85 86 86 85 86 85 79 75 69 64 61 53 52 48 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 12 10 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 83 70 57 48 24 8 -11 14 20 34 38 40 34 29 36 42 40 200 MB DIV 104 85 107 120 110 129 130 114 55 81 22 0 -12 -23 -18 -8 -15 700-850 TADV 0 4 7 11 9 3 -3 -12 -14 -27 -13 -15 -2 -7 -1 -4 -3 LAND (KM) 495 493 461 466 482 368 323 265 352 262 392 570 750 968 1189 1392 1571 LAT (DEG N) 9.1 9.5 10.1 10.7 11.4 12.9 14.9 17.2 19.4 21.0 22.0 22.6 22.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 90.4 91.6 92.9 94.2 95.6 99.0 102.7 106.1 108.9 111.5 114.4 117.2 120.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 15 16 20 21 18 16 14 14 13 13 12 11 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 9 10 12 17 23 35 45 32 16 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 12. 21. 30. 36. 39. 39. 39. 37. 34. 32. 30. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -11. -13. -14. -14. -13. -11. -8. -6. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 8. 10. 15. 21. 28. 32. 32. 30. 27. 24. 19. 15. 10. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.1 90.4 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912025 INVEST 08/05/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.85 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.18 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 17.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 105.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.68 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.11 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.6 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912025 INVEST 08/05/25 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING