* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * HENRIETTE EP082025 08/12/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 74 73 71 68 59 49 36 25 22 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 74 73 71 68 59 49 36 25 22 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 75 73 69 65 54 42 32 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 8 14 17 17 30 41 31 16 17 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -2 -2 0 0 -6 0 -1 -2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 16 3 353 353 354 7 66 97 151 209 256 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.5 24.9 23.8 22.0 18.8 17.0 15.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 134 132 132 130 114 102 82 60 60 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.7 -55.5 -55.6 -55.7 -55.5 -54.7 -54.3 -54.0 -54.3 -54.7 -55.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.0 -0.6 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 6 4 3 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 44 48 50 48 46 45 44 45 52 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 11 11 10 8 5 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -39 -38 -36 -51 -63 -97 -136 -158 -98 -129 -135 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 32 8 -24 -9 -42 -53 -23 -4 16 -4 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 3 0 -4 -16 -2 -16 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 902 1008 1128 1247 1375 1677 1810 1617 1429 1285 1174 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.3 31.3 32.3 33.2 34.1 36.2 38.3 40.3 42.2 43.4 44.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 158.4 159.7 160.9 162.2 163.5 166.1 168.3 170.0 170.8 170.1 168.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 14 14 15 14 13 11 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 15 CX,CY: -10/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -5. -14. -27. -40. -51. -56. -57. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 17. 28. 31. 34. 37. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -8. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -13. -14. -14. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -7. -16. -26. -39. -50. -53. -49. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 30.3 158.4 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082025 HENRIETTE 08/12/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.23 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 643.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.18 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.13 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 69.2 58.2 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.6 0.44 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082025 HENRIETTE 08/12/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##