* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * HENRIETTE EP082025 08/11/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 75 74 73 71 63 52 43 29 20 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 75 74 73 71 63 52 43 29 20 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 75 74 71 68 58 47 36 28 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 4 10 11 18 24 42 41 25 15 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 0 -2 3 -7 -3 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 1 355 360 348 351 341 47 76 110 173 214 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.7 26.8 26.8 26.6 26.8 25.4 24.3 23.1 21.0 18.3 17.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 134 134 132 134 119 107 93 71 59 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.7 -55.7 -55.6 -55.7 -55.8 -55.1 -54.6 -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 -55.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.6 -0.8 -0.7 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 5 4 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 44 46 49 51 47 48 44 45 49 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 9 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -47 -41 -40 -37 -52 -82 -130 -169 -113 -113 -114 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 31 24 1 -23 -15 -57 -21 -15 -4 -4 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 11 7 5 -7 -7 -12 -4 -3 1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 816 907 1020 1146 1282 1567 1861 1703 1523 1386 1293 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.3 30.4 31.4 32.5 33.5 35.5 37.5 39.4 41.2 42.6 43.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 157.2 158.5 159.8 161.1 162.3 165.0 167.5 169.3 170.2 170.8 171.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 15 15 15 15 13 10 8 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 16 CX,CY: -11/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 675 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -13. -24. -37. -49. -59. -64. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 15. 26. 31. 34. 36. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -9. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -7. -11. -14. -15. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -2. -4. -12. -23. -32. -46. -55. -57. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 29.3 157.2 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082025 HENRIETTE 08/11/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.24 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.67 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 623.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.20 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.18 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 65.0 58.2 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.6 0.42 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082025 HENRIETTE 08/11/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##