* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * HENRIETTE EP082025 08/11/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 69 68 69 67 63 54 45 38 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 69 68 69 67 63 54 45 38 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 70 69 66 64 57 48 39 31 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 4 4 3 5 16 25 42 43 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 -3 -3 -2 -2 4 -7 -7 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 108 48 339 3 339 353 347 43 80 126 198 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.7 26.1 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.9 25.8 24.9 23.6 21.5 19.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 122 127 131 132 133 135 123 113 99 76 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -55.3 -55.5 -55.7 -55.7 -55.9 -55.0 -54.7 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.0 -0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.8 -0.6 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 5 3 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 41 45 46 48 50 45 47 44 44 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 10 11 12 11 10 8 5 4 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -33 -50 -43 -41 -47 -48 -82 -131 -165 -135 -161 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 15 41 36 15 -6 -12 -39 -6 -13 -6 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 6 8 6 1 -9 -9 -16 -2 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 710 769 832 915 1019 1295 1574 1836 1695 1510 1332 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.2 28.3 29.4 30.4 31.4 33.6 35.6 37.4 39.4 41.2 42.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 154.4 155.7 157.0 158.3 159.6 162.4 164.9 167.1 168.8 169.5 169.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 15 15 16 15 13 12 11 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 15 CX,CY: -10/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -10. -18. -28. -37. -48. -59. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 21. 28. 32. 34. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -10. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -8. -11. -14. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -1. -3. -7. -16. -25. -32. -46. -56. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 27.2 154.4 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082025 HENRIETTE 08/11/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.24 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.83 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 579.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.25 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.26 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 50.5 58.2 to 0.0 0.13 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.6 0.52 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 23.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 7.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.5% 5.4% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082025 HENRIETTE 08/11/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##