* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * HENRIETTE EP082025 08/11/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 73 73 74 74 69 63 55 45 35 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 73 73 74 74 69 63 55 45 35 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 74 75 74 71 64 55 46 36 29 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 8 6 5 5 13 17 35 51 35 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -4 -2 -2 -3 -2 0 0 -10 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 125 90 54 20 16 338 356 15 61 87 127 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.1 25.7 26.1 26.5 26.6 26.8 26.4 25.5 24.4 22.9 20.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 122 126 131 132 134 129 120 107 91 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -55.0 -55.2 -55.5 -55.6 -55.7 -55.5 -54.7 -54.0 -53.3 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.2 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 4 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 40 42 46 47 50 48 49 50 50 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 11 12 12 10 10 7 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -36 -49 -51 -45 -34 -66 -99 -149 -175 -51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 5 6 29 45 17 -18 -49 -52 0 -11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 3 2 5 3 3 -15 -1 -12 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 664 713 769 825 913 1153 1423 1695 1822 1646 1454 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.2 27.3 28.3 29.4 30.4 32.5 34.5 36.3 38.2 40.0 41.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 153.2 154.5 155.7 157.0 158.4 161.1 163.7 166.3 168.4 169.8 170.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 16 16 15 14 14 11 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 14 CX,CY: -9/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -9. -17. -25. -34. -43. -55. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 17. 25. 30. 33. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. -0. -1. -4. -10. -12. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 3. 4. 4. -1. -7. -15. -25. -35. -46. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 26.2 153.2 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082025 HENRIETTE 08/11/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.23 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.77 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 558.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.27 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.26 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 52.2 58.2 to 0.0 0.10 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.6 0.57 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 25.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 8.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 7.0% 10.0% 5.0% 3.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 3.5% 9.3% 2.5% 1.5% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082025 HENRIETTE 08/11/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##