* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * HENRIETTE EP082025 08/10/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 49 50 50 52 50 48 44 38 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 47 49 50 50 52 50 48 44 38 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 47 48 49 49 47 43 38 33 27 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 16 16 7 9 5 11 18 34 49 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -6 -10 -3 -3 -5 -2 -1 0 -7 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 168 124 118 85 24 28 343 355 10 51 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.9 26.0 26.1 25.8 26.1 26.6 26.8 26.4 25.6 24.7 23.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 124 125 126 123 127 132 134 129 120 111 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.7 -54.9 -55.0 -55.1 -55.6 -55.8 -55.6 -54.6 -54.2 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.2 -0.6 -0.6 0.1 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 41 41 41 42 47 49 46 47 47 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 11 11 12 11 12 11 10 8 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -14 -30 -39 -56 -53 -49 -84 -107 -135 -175 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 1 4 -6 14 28 2 -31 -50 -54 -5 -23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 5 0 3 6 0 2 -19 -3 -11 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 644 637 659 715 775 905 1159 1427 1629 1867 1673 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.2 25.2 26.1 27.2 28.3 30.3 32.6 34.7 36.0 37.7 39.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 150.9 152.0 153.1 154.3 155.5 158.2 160.7 163.0 165.3 167.4 169.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 15 16 16 15 13 12 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 13 CX,CY: -9/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -14. -20. -27. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 11. 16. 20. 25. 29. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -5. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 5. 7. 5. 3. -1. -7. -17. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 24.2 150.9 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082025 HENRIETTE 08/10/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.42 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.68 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 355.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.50 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.20 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 46.5 58.2 to 0.0 0.20 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.6 0.58 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 6.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 3.0% 10.0% 3.0% 0.0% SDCON: 3.0% 10.5% 5.0% 2.5% 1.5% 5.0% 1.5% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082025 HENRIETTE 08/10/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##