* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * HENRIETTE EP082025 08/10/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 37 39 41 41 44 46 42 35 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 35 37 39 41 41 44 46 42 35 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 35 35 34 33 31 28 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 15 14 16 5 10 5 14 19 36 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -5 -10 -2 -6 -2 -3 3 -5 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 210 168 132 122 83 2 281 334 332 27 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.7 25.8 26.0 26.0 25.7 26.5 26.7 26.8 25.7 24.6 23.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 122 123 125 125 122 131 133 133 122 109 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.5 -54.8 -54.9 -55.0 -55.5 -55.7 -55.9 -55.0 -54.9 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.2 -0.1 -0.7 -0.5 -0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 6 6 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 41 41 41 41 45 49 51 47 47 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 10 11 12 12 13 12 10 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -12 -20 -33 -40 -50 -35 -42 -77 -132 -128 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -4 1 1 3 19 44 11 -42 -60 -17 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 7 6 2 3 2 4 -5 -9 -7 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 671 659 656 681 729 846 1053 1318 1609 1826 1651 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.4 24.4 25.3 26.3 27.3 29.5 31.7 33.9 36.1 38.0 39.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 149.8 150.9 151.9 153.0 154.2 156.9 159.6 161.9 164.3 166.3 167.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 14 15 16 15 15 14 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 13 CX,CY: -9/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -12. -19. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 11. 15. 18. 22. 28. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 4. 5. 2. -2. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 7. 0. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 23.4 149.8 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082025 HENRIETTE 08/10/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.49 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.62 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 282.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.59 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.18 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 45.6 58.2 to 0.0 0.22 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.6 0.53 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 7.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% SDCON: 0.5% 5.9% 2.0% 0.5% 0.5% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082025 HENRIETTE 08/10/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##