* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * HENRIETTE EP082025 08/09/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 38 41 41 42 44 44 38 31 27 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 38 41 41 42 44 44 38 31 27 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 38 38 38 37 35 32 29 25 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 16 17 14 14 6 12 9 13 25 40 45 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 0 -4 -3 -6 -3 -3 0 -5 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 246 233 210 184 134 85 16 319 339 330 21 45 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.1 25.4 25.7 25.8 26.0 25.8 26.4 26.7 26.8 26.0 25.0 23.6 20.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 115 118 121 122 125 123 130 133 133 125 114 99 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.0 -54.3 -54.6 -54.9 -55.0 -55.5 -55.6 -55.9 -55.3 -55.0 -53.7 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 -0.1 -0.6 -0.7 -0.3 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 6 5 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 42 42 41 41 42 47 51 54 50 50 51 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 10 11 11 11 11 8 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 -2 -4 -17 -20 -37 -56 -36 -31 -65 -108 -113 -125 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 29 0 -6 0 0 9 30 14 -14 -42 -39 -10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 8 8 7 8 2 0 7 -2 -3 -6 5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 792 720 671 651 639 708 817 997 1262 1529 1793 1685 1454 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.9 22.7 23.4 24.3 25.1 27.1 29.2 31.2 33.4 35.4 37.3 39.4 41.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 147.6 148.7 149.8 150.9 151.9 154.2 156.8 159.4 161.8 164.1 166.2 168.0 169.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 15 15 15 15 13 13 13 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 14 CX,CY: -11/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 690 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -12. -17. -24. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 17. 21. 27. 31. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. -0. -5. -7. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -9. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 6. 6. 7. 9. 9. 3. -4. -8. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 21.9 147.6 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082025 HENRIETTE 08/09/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.47 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.47 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 273.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.60 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.18 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 43.9 58.2 to 0.0 0.25 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.6 0.55 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 9.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% SDCON: 0.5% 6.5% 2.5% 1.0% 0.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082025 HENRIETTE 08/09/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##