* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * HENRIETTE EP082025 08/09/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 31 32 35 36 36 37 32 26 22 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 31 32 35 36 36 37 32 26 22 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 29 29 29 28 26 23 21 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 13 14 18 14 14 9 12 17 17 32 40 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 0 -1 0 -6 -2 -7 -5 -2 -1 2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 261 245 230 215 188 133 42 11 339 348 360 32 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.6 25.0 25.4 25.7 25.7 26.2 26.0 26.6 26.8 26.6 25.6 24.4 23.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 110 114 118 121 122 127 125 132 134 131 120 107 93 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -54.2 -54.6 -54.8 -55.2 -55.4 -55.8 -55.9 -55.4 -55.0 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.3 -0.8 -0.4 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 6 5 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 42 41 42 42 42 44 49 52 52 48 47 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 9 8 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 15 2 -2 -11 -30 -56 -58 -36 -41 -82 -122 -95 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 14 27 0 0 0 -3 13 16 6 -47 -61 -6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 6 6 9 8 3 5 0 5 -5 2 -7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 912 802 707 670 650 650 730 854 1103 1379 1638 1803 1618 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.1 21.8 22.4 23.2 24.0 25.9 27.9 29.8 32.1 34.3 36.3 38.2 40.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 146.2 147.5 148.7 149.7 150.6 152.9 155.6 157.9 160.6 162.8 164.6 166.2 167.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 12 13 15 15 15 15 13 12 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -6. -10. -16. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 15. 18. 24. 28. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -3. -6. -8. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 1. 2. 5. 6. 6. 7. 2. -4. -8. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 21.1 146.2 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082025 HENRIETTE 08/09/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.48 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.48 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 231.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.20 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.38 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 45.7 58.2 to 0.0 0.21 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.6 0.45 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 7.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 6.0% 5.0% 3.0% SDCON: 0.0% 4.5% 1.5% 0.5% 0.5% 3.0% 2.5% 1.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082025 HENRIETTE 08/09/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##