* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * HENRIETTE EP082025 08/09/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 30 31 33 36 34 36 32 29 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 30 31 33 36 34 36 32 29 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 29 28 28 28 27 25 24 21 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 14 14 15 17 16 10 8 10 12 11 20 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -1 -1 -1 -6 -5 -4 -4 -6 -3 -2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 246 254 244 238 214 140 87 21 338 342 312 4 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.2 24.6 25.0 25.4 25.6 26.0 25.9 26.3 26.7 26.8 25.9 24.4 22.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 106 110 114 118 121 125 124 128 133 134 124 109 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -54.2 -54.8 -54.9 -55.3 -55.6 -56.1 -55.8 -55.9 -55.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.9 -0.6 -0.8 -0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 6 6 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 43 42 41 41 42 41 46 51 56 53 53 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 7 8 8 8 9 11 9 10 8 7 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 24 17 10 5 -16 -35 -61 -36 -29 -47 -70 -74 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -6 11 24 2 0 -2 -5 11 15 12 -29 -27 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 4 7 8 9 5 2 0 2 -1 7 0 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1016 904 799 708 638 600 657 765 953 1223 1535 1800 1507 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.4 21.0 21.5 22.2 22.9 24.7 26.6 28.7 30.8 33.1 35.6 38.2 40.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 145.1 146.3 147.4 148.6 149.8 152.0 154.2 156.8 159.2 161.4 163.5 165.2 166.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 13 13 14 15 15 15 15 15 15 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 685 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -7. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 15. 18. 21. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 2. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 6. 4. 6. 2. -1. -7. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 20.4 145.1 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082025 HENRIETTE 08/09/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.45 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.49 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 232.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.19 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 49.5 58.2 to 0.0 0.15 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.6 0.31 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 6.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 5.0% 5.0% 7.0% SDCON: 0.0% 4.2% 1.5% 0.5% 0.5% 2.5% 2.5% 3.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082025 HENRIETTE 08/09/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##