* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * HENRIETTE EP082025 08/09/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 28 28 29 31 33 36 35 32 32 31 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 28 28 28 29 31 33 36 35 32 32 31 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 28 27 26 25 25 26 26 26 25 24 24 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 13 12 12 15 17 15 12 14 17 8 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 -3 -1 -1 -4 -8 -6 -5 -6 -5 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 232 242 245 232 231 196 115 18 353 326 313 263 349 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.2 24.2 24.7 25.1 25.4 25.9 26.2 26.1 26.6 26.8 26.5 25.1 22.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 106 106 111 115 118 124 127 127 132 133 130 117 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -54.6 -54.7 -55.1 -55.5 -55.8 -55.6 -55.1 -54.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.7 0.3 -0.1 -0.4 -0.8 -0.8 -0.6 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 7 7 6 4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 42 42 41 40 42 42 44 50 50 55 54 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 8 8 9 9 9 11 9 8 8 9 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 35 22 14 8 -9 -36 -55 -23 -29 -17 -20 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -2 -6 16 21 0 -8 -2 17 32 15 29 -10 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 7 6 6 7 7 0 5 -3 4 -4 20 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1140 1007 881 782 698 606 625 716 881 1125 1386 1739 1555 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.6 21.1 21.8 22.4 23.9 25.8 27.8 30.1 32.3 34.4 37.2 40.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 143.9 145.2 146.5 147.7 148.8 151.1 153.2 155.7 158.3 160.6 162.6 164.8 167.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 12 13 13 14 16 15 14 15 18 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 749 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -2. -5. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 16. 18. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 3. 0. -1. -0. -0. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 6. 5. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 20.0 143.9 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082025 HENRIETTE 08/09/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.43 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.52 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 227.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.65 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.19 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 56.2 58.2 to 0.0 0.03 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.6 0.30 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 5.0% 5.0% 6.0% SDCON: 0.0% 3.6% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 2.5% 2.5% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082025 HENRIETTE 08/09/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##