* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * HENRIETTE EP082025 08/08/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 27 27 28 28 31 34 35 34 31 28 27 17 22 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 28 27 27 28 28 31 34 35 34 31 28 27 17 22 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 28 26 25 24 23 24 25 26 25 24 23 22 19 16 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 10 9 8 11 13 11 9 13 10 12 12 2 27 37 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -5 -8 -5 -1 -3 -5 2 2 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 223 230 242 236 228 214 161 86 2 311 302 231 191 359 343 N/A N/A SST (C) 23.9 24.2 24.2 24.6 25.1 25.7 26.0 25.8 26.4 26.7 26.8 25.8 24.4 20.9 15.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 103 106 106 110 115 121 125 123 129 133 134 124 109 73 64 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.8 -53.9 -54.2 -54.8 -54.8 -55.6 -55.5 -55.9 -54.9 -54.5 -53.6 -53.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.2 -0.2 -0.6 -0.8 -0.5 -0.5 0.4 -0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 3 1 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 43 43 43 41 42 41 41 47 50 54 50 55 56 68 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 9 8 9 8 10 11 12 11 10 9 11 7 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 37 32 19 9 -1 -26 -44 -45 -21 0 0 4 32 7 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -9 -3 -5 14 16 11 13 5 20 22 16 5 6 5 36 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 8 4 4 6 5 5 1 3 2 2 -1 9 0 3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1307 1166 1028 908 798 658 608 666 772 975 1257 1566 1792 1457 1075 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.2 20.6 21.2 21.8 23.2 24.8 26.8 28.8 31.0 33.4 35.8 38.3 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 142.3 143.7 145.0 146.3 147.5 149.8 152.0 154.5 156.9 159.3 161.5 163.9 166.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 13 13 13 14 15 15 15 15 16 16 19 20 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 695 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 0. -3. -8. -12. -7. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 14. 16. 17. 19. 19. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 1. -0. 2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. -12. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 1. 4. 5. 4. 1. -2. -3. -13. -8. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.8 142.3 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082025 HENRIETTE 08/08/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.41 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 219.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.66 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.17 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 53.2 58.2 to 0.0 0.09 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.6 0.29 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 3.0% 6.0% SDCON: 0.0% 3.4% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 1.0% 1.5% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082025 HENRIETTE 08/08/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##