* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * HENRIETTE EP082025 08/08/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 33 33 32 33 35 36 35 33 31 26 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 33 33 32 33 35 36 35 33 31 26 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 34 33 32 31 29 30 31 32 32 30 29 27 23 18 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 12 11 11 10 10 13 9 8 12 13 7 1 25 35 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 1 -1 -2 0 -3 -7 -4 -3 -3 -6 2 -1 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 215 224 226 226 231 218 204 113 356 333 307 303 346 33 56 N/A N/A SST (C) 24.1 23.9 24.3 24.3 24.6 25.4 25.8 26.3 26.2 26.6 26.8 26.5 25.2 22.4 15.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 106 103 107 107 110 118 122 128 128 131 133 131 118 90 65 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 -54.0 -54.5 -54.5 -55.1 -55.7 -55.7 -55.5 -55.4 -55.2 -53.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.3 1.0 0.6 0.0 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 2 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 43 43 44 43 41 42 41 45 52 47 48 48 42 50 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 11 11 10 11 9 6 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 44 38 31 16 0 -13 -39 -53 -9 0 0 -41 -116 -84 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 8 -8 -5 3 14 2 -7 10 -1 46 -3 23 -20 -57 14 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 6 6 5 3 5 6 2 5 -2 6 -5 6 -23 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1465 1312 1161 1037 920 722 644 644 755 906 1122 1405 1779 1503 1099 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.5 19.9 20.3 20.9 21.5 22.7 24.2 26.0 28.2 30.3 32.3 34.6 37.5 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 140.8 142.3 143.7 145.0 146.2 148.7 150.9 153.2 155.8 158.1 160.2 162.5 165.1 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 13 13 13 13 15 16 14 14 16 19 21 22 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 693 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -6. -9. -13. -10. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 15. 16. 18. 18. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 1. 0. 1. -2. -5. -7. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -14. -13. -14. -12. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. 0. 1. -0. -2. -4. -9. -19. -18. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.5 140.8 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082025 HENRIETTE 08/08/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.35 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.55 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 256.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.62 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.17 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 47.4 58.2 to 0.0 0.19 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.6 0.34 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 4.0% 4.0% SDCON: 0.0% 4.2% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082025 HENRIETTE 08/08/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##