* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * HENRIETTE EP082025 08/08/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 28 26 25 25 25 27 30 31 30 28 28 30 24 19 N/A V (KT) LAND 35 32 28 26 25 25 25 27 30 31 30 28 28 30 24 19 N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 31 28 26 24 22 21 22 23 24 24 24 24 24 22 18 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 8 7 10 11 9 10 9 4 3 10 13 9 11 8 23 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 3 2 2 -4 -2 -3 -4 -2 -4 -3 0 8 10 10 3 SHEAR DIR 218 224 209 208 218 220 216 219 146 13 347 310 280 238 162 38 43 SST (C) 24.0 23.7 24.0 23.9 24.3 24.6 25.4 25.9 26.3 26.1 26.6 26.6 26.7 25.9 24.8 23.3 20.5 POT. INT. (KT) 104 101 104 103 107 110 118 124 128 126 131 131 132 124 112 96 66 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -54.1 -54.2 -54.5 -54.7 -55.2 -55.5 -55.4 -55.2 -54.1 -53.8 -53.7 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 0.2 1.1 0.9 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.7 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 5 6 6 6 6 6 4 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 49 48 46 44 43 43 42 42 41 44 48 49 51 62 62 52 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 10 10 9 10 9 10 10 11 11 10 11 14 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 55 46 43 36 22 4 -15 -48 -62 -21 -17 15 27 31 -42 -82 200 MB DIV -16 -15 7 3 0 20 2 2 -2 -10 40 21 42 23 -13 -8 -23 700-850 TADV 3 -4 -3 1 3 2 4 4 4 4 -2 4 10 16 5 10 0 LAND (KM) 1804 1645 1486 1328 1172 918 722 630 639 733 847 1042 1267 1533 1822 1583 1362 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.3 19.5 19.9 20.3 21.4 22.7 24.2 26.0 27.9 29.7 31.6 33.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 137.6 139.1 140.6 142.1 143.6 146.2 148.7 151.1 153.3 155.5 157.7 159.7 161.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 15 14 13 13 13 14 13 13 12 13 14 13 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 2. -0. -3. -6. -9. -10. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 14. 15. 16. 15. 13. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. 1. -4. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -8. -5. -4. -5. -7. -7. -5. -11. -16. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.0 137.6 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082025 HENRIETTE 08/08/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.33 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.53 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 252.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.62 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.14 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 24.2 58.2 to 0.0 0.58 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.6 0.46 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 5.0% SDCON: 0.0% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 2.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082025 HENRIETTE 08/08/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##