* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * HENRIETTE EP082025 08/07/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 41 38 36 33 32 32 33 34 36 33 32 32 36 30 23 V (KT) LAND 45 43 41 38 36 33 32 32 33 34 36 33 32 32 36 30 23 V (KT) LGEM 45 44 42 39 37 34 31 30 30 31 32 33 32 32 33 31 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 9 9 10 11 10 7 7 1 6 11 16 31 36 54 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 2 2 0 -4 -3 -5 -4 -5 -1 0 4 -2 -8 -2 SHEAR DIR 208 220 222 216 209 214 209 183 197 117 348 334 326 337 347 15 340 SST (C) 24.2 23.9 23.6 24.0 23.9 24.2 25.0 25.6 26.3 25.9 26.3 26.7 26.8 26.5 25.5 24.5 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 106 103 100 104 103 106 114 121 128 124 127 132 133 130 119 109 90 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -54.3 -54.3 -54.7 -54.8 -55.6 -55.7 -55.7 -54.1 -53.9 -52.1 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.1 0.7 0.3 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 5 6 6 7 6 4 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 51 49 47 46 44 45 43 42 41 42 45 48 49 55 68 69 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 11 10 10 9 9 10 9 10 11 10 10 11 16 13 10 850 MB ENV VOR 49 48 53 44 40 34 15 -2 -32 -54 -58 -26 -5 10 28 50 87 200 MB DIV -17 -17 -15 3 -1 7 19 -9 -17 16 -5 41 32 13 8 -9 -16 700-850 TADV 5 3 -1 0 3 3 4 3 4 5 4 0 5 11 12 -6 6 LAND (KM) 1974 1808 1644 1491 1338 1041 822 678 639 705 800 946 1149 1401 1678 1749 1575 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.1 19.4 19.7 19.9 20.8 22.2 23.5 25.4 27.2 28.9 30.7 32.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 136.0 137.5 139.1 140.5 142.0 144.9 147.4 149.8 152.3 154.5 156.4 158.5 160.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 14 14 15 14 13 14 14 13 12 13 13 13 13 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -17. -17. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 13. 14. 15. 14. 10. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 3. 0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -13. -13. -12. -10. -9. -12. -13. -13. -9. -15. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 18.8 136.0 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082025 HENRIETTE 08/07/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.24 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.56 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 315.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.55 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.12 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.9 58.2 to 0.0 0.80 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.6 0.46 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% SDCON: 0.0% 2.7% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082025 HENRIETTE 08/07/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##