* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * HENRIETTE EP082025 08/07/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 41 40 37 33 29 27 26 28 29 28 26 23 22 22 19 V (KT) LAND 45 43 41 40 37 33 29 27 26 28 29 28 26 23 22 22 19 V (KT) LGEM 45 44 42 40 38 34 31 29 28 29 30 32 32 32 31 29 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 11 10 9 12 14 10 12 11 5 6 14 12 10 13 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 0 2 2 -2 -3 -5 -6 -6 -7 -4 -2 -3 1 3 SHEAR DIR 204 212 220 220 214 211 208 208 213 200 166 37 10 347 319 357 17 SST (C) 25.0 24.6 24.0 23.8 24.1 24.2 24.6 25.3 25.9 26.1 26.1 26.4 26.4 26.2 25.8 25.3 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 115 111 104 102 105 106 110 117 124 126 126 128 128 127 123 117 111 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -54.3 -54.4 -54.6 -55.1 -55.4 -55.7 -55.8 -55.6 -55.5 -55.0 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.2 1.0 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.7 -0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 6 7 7 7 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 53 51 49 47 46 44 44 42 44 41 46 49 52 52 53 54 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 12 12 12 11 9 9 9 8 8 9 10 10 9 8 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 51 52 51 54 50 40 25 9 -12 -46 -65 -38 -27 -24 -31 -45 -87 200 MB DIV -2 -17 -13 -3 5 -1 18 10 -1 6 44 50 22 4 -37 -15 -28 700-850 TADV 1 2 0 0 1 3 4 6 4 3 3 1 5 0 0 -14 5 LAND (KM) 2103 1938 1773 1608 1444 1151 875 690 600 615 717 829 966 1165 1430 1696 1854 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.7 18.9 19.2 19.5 20.3 21.3 22.6 24.1 26.0 27.9 29.6 30.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 134.8 136.4 137.9 139.5 141.0 143.8 146.6 149.0 151.4 153.8 156.0 158.1 160.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 14 14 13 13 14 14 13 11 12 14 13 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -14. -15. -15. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 12. 13. 12. 10. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -8. -12. -16. -18. -19. -17. -16. -17. -19. -22. -22. -23. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 18.5 134.8 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082025 HENRIETTE 08/07/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.27 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.62 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 309.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.56 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.13 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.8 58.2 to 0.0 0.76 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.6 0.37 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 2.9% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082025 HENRIETTE 08/07/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##