* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * HENRIETTE EP082025 08/06/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 41 40 38 34 30 28 26 26 28 29 30 31 31 30 29 V (KT) LAND 45 44 41 40 38 34 30 28 26 26 28 29 30 31 31 30 29 V (KT) LGEM 45 44 42 40 38 34 31 28 26 24 24 24 26 27 27 26 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 8 6 7 7 9 9 9 10 8 11 9 9 10 21 22 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 -3 -2 1 2 -3 -2 -3 -1 -3 -3 -8 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 219 220 219 199 211 219 209 216 188 216 266 222 184 91 64 57 51 SST (C) 25.0 24.8 25.2 25.3 24.7 23.7 24.2 24.2 24.5 25.3 25.9 26.2 25.9 26.3 26.2 26.1 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 115 113 117 118 112 101 106 106 109 117 123 127 123 127 126 124 123 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -54.1 -54.2 -54.5 -54.8 -55.1 -55.4 -55.3 -55.1 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 1.2 0.6 0.0 0.6 0.0 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 4 4 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 63 60 59 57 56 51 48 47 47 43 44 40 42 46 49 50 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 15 15 14 13 11 11 10 10 11 10 11 12 12 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR 45 46 46 53 52 51 46 34 23 5 -15 -42 -67 -77 -78 -74 -68 200 MB DIV 2 16 3 -5 -1 -2 -4 -3 11 1 -15 20 16 30 -7 -49 -3 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -2 -2 0 0 0 4 3 2 0 2 0 4 -1 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1801 1911 2028 2154 2081 1762 1444 1141 872 701 621 593 644 731 875 1007 1123 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.2 18.4 18.5 18.6 19.0 19.6 20.4 21.6 22.8 24.0 25.4 27.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 129.0 130.5 132.0 133.5 135.0 138.0 141.0 143.9 146.7 149.0 151.0 153.1 155.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 14 14 15 14 13 11 11 13 13 12 11 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 2 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. -7. -10. -11. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 11. 9. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -9. -9. -8. -6. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -5. -7. -11. -15. -17. -19. -19. -17. -16. -15. -14. -14. -15. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 18.0 129.0 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082025 HENRIETTE 08/06/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.33 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.65 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 275.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.59 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.18 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.4 58.2 to 0.0 0.75 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.6 0.47 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.5% 0.6% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 4.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 2.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082025 HENRIETTE 08/06/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##