* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * GIL EP072025 08/03/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 50 44 37 32 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 50 44 37 32 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 50 44 39 35 29 25 23 21 19 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 10 12 17 15 22 23 26 29 37 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 7 6 5 0 0 -1 4 1 -3 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 250 215 244 248 239 238 223 232 248 277 284 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.1 23.9 23.7 22.5 22.8 23.4 23.9 24.6 25.1 25.6 25.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 106 103 101 88 92 97 102 110 115 120 123 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -53.2 -53.6 -54.0 -54.5 -54.8 -55.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 62 58 56 51 45 44 42 39 40 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 23 21 19 18 15 14 13 11 10 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 44 34 36 43 46 36 23 11 1 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 78 61 23 7 -6 3 1 2 -14 -18 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 16 9 -1 -6 -2 -3 1 -1 -1 -4 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1908 2010 2074 2012 1873 1591 1340 1110 833 618 448 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.8 20.3 20.8 21.3 22.0 22.2 22.6 22.9 23.2 23.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 131.2 132.7 134.2 135.5 136.9 139.7 142.2 144.6 147.6 150.3 152.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 14 14 14 13 11 13 13 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 18 CX,CY: -15/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -16. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -11. -14. -18. -21. -23. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -11. -18. -23. -30. -35. -39. -44. -47. -50. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 19.2 131.2 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072025 GIL 08/03/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.11 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 338.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.52 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.32 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.9 58.2 to 0.0 0.74 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.6 0.37 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072025 GIL 08/03/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##