* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * GIL EP072025 08/02/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 56 51 45 38 30 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 56 51 45 38 30 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 56 51 46 41 33 29 26 24 22 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 4 8 13 15 17 20 25 25 31 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 6 4 5 -1 -1 -1 3 -1 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 283 288 219 231 246 236 234 224 235 261 288 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.0 23.9 23.5 23.4 22.3 23.1 23.6 24.1 24.7 25.2 25.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 105 104 99 98 86 94 99 104 111 116 124 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -53.3 -53.4 -54.0 -54.2 -55.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 3 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 66 61 58 55 48 44 41 41 40 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 25 24 22 20 18 15 14 13 11 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 44 47 34 37 53 43 43 19 11 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 55 66 50 23 13 4 13 -3 -14 -29 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 12 10 -4 -5 -1 -2 1 -1 -2 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1817 1897 1987 2035 2028 1745 1510 1277 1053 826 636 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.6 19.3 20.0 20.6 21.2 22.0 22.6 22.9 23.2 23.6 24.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 129.7 131.2 132.6 134.0 135.4 138.2 140.6 143.0 145.4 148.1 150.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 15 14 14 13 11 11 12 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 19 CX,CY: -16/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. -18. -20. -22. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -15. -20. -22. -23. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -15. -22. -30. -36. -41. -47. -50. -53. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 18.6 129.7 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072025 GIL 08/02/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.07 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.35 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 353.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.51 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.37 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.6 58.2 to 0.0 0.70 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.6 0.31 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072025 GIL 08/02/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##