* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * GIL EP072025 08/02/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 63 59 53 48 37 29 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 63 59 53 48 37 29 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 63 58 53 47 38 32 28 25 23 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 7 6 9 10 16 22 25 26 30 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 5 6 5 0 0 -2 2 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 299 287 268 230 236 240 242 234 235 245 270 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.6 24.1 24.0 23.5 23.4 22.7 23.4 24.0 24.2 24.8 25.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 122 106 105 99 98 90 97 103 105 111 115 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.6 -52.2 -52.3 -52.7 -52.6 -53.0 -53.3 -53.8 -54.2 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 3 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 68 65 61 58 49 44 41 37 35 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 28 26 25 24 22 19 17 15 14 12 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 38 42 47 36 49 51 47 36 21 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 72 64 72 56 21 2 -7 0 -1 -15 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 6 11 5 -3 -3 -3 2 -2 -1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1720 1792 1878 1971 2020 1887 1630 1394 1172 959 764 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.6 19.4 20.1 20.7 21.8 22.5 22.8 23.3 23.6 23.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 127.8 129.4 131.0 132.5 133.9 136.8 139.4 141.8 144.2 146.6 148.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 16 15 15 13 12 11 11 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 19 CX,CY: -16/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -13. -16. -20. -23. -26. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -12. -17. -21. -23. -25. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -6. -12. -17. -28. -35. -42. -48. -53. -57. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 17.8 127.8 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072025 GIL 08/02/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.09 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.46 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 354.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.51 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.44 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.3 58.2 to 0.0 0.81 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.6 0.28 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072025 GIL 08/02/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##