* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * GIL EP072025 08/02/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 65 62 58 48 40 31 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 66 65 62 58 48 40 31 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 66 64 60 55 46 38 32 28 25 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 5 7 4 4 14 18 24 24 27 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 3 6 6 2 0 0 0 -1 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 295 321 321 304 231 243 239 244 237 250 266 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.7 25.7 24.2 24.3 23.9 22.3 23.3 23.7 24.2 24.8 25.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 123 123 107 108 104 86 96 100 105 112 116 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.3 -52.4 -52.8 -52.7 -53.4 -53.5 -54.1 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 71 68 65 61 52 44 38 34 31 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 26 27 25 24 21 19 16 14 13 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 43 44 49 55 54 71 57 53 33 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 79 75 63 68 62 1 -4 4 -15 -11 -25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 0 6 10 4 -3 -4 0 0 -1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1642 1712 1789 1888 1998 2017 1741 1470 1254 1006 753 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.7 18.4 19.1 19.8 20.8 21.6 22.1 22.4 22.7 23.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 126.0 127.6 129.2 130.9 132.6 135.5 138.2 140.9 143.1 145.7 148.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 17 18 16 14 13 12 11 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 17 CX,CY: -14/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -1. -5. -9. -13. -16. -19. -22. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -14. -17. -19. -21. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -3. -6. -17. -25. -34. -40. -45. -49. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 17.0 126.0 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072025 GIL 08/02/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.15 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.61 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 314.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.55 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.50 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.1 58.2 to 0.0 0.84 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.6 0.34 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.8% 19.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 2.6% 3.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.0% 7.4% 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 3.5% 4.2% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072025 GIL 08/02/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##