* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * GIL EP072025 08/02/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 69 72 72 69 61 51 42 33 28 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 69 72 72 69 61 51 42 33 28 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 68 69 68 64 54 44 37 32 29 27 25 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 0 2 3 3 9 15 21 24 29 34 42 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 1 4 7 5 0 0 -1 0 -6 -6 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 301 310 13 318 293 248 245 248 239 255 259 272 270 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.2 25.7 25.7 24.2 24.2 23.6 22.7 23.3 23.9 24.4 25.0 25.4 25.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 128 123 123 107 107 100 90 96 102 108 114 117 122 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -53.4 -54.0 -54.4 -54.6 -54.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.5 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 0 0 0 1 2 2 3 4 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 70 70 68 66 57 49 45 39 36 33 32 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 27 28 28 26 23 20 17 16 15 13 11 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 51 51 51 54 50 63 62 57 43 34 21 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 78 85 75 80 81 13 -6 -5 -19 -7 -16 -4 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -10 -6 0 5 9 2 -4 -3 1 -3 4 -3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1587 1643 1712 1789 1879 2056 1883 1653 1422 1156 890 693 562 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.2 17.0 17.7 18.4 19.1 20.3 21.3 22.0 22.7 23.1 23.3 23.6 24.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 124.3 126.0 127.6 129.2 130.8 133.9 136.8 139.1 141.5 144.3 147.2 149.7 151.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 17 17 16 15 13 11 12 13 12 11 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -7. -11. -14. -17. -21. -24. -27. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -6. -11. -15. -16. -19. -20. -19. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 7. 4. -4. -14. -23. -32. -37. -43. -48. -51. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 16.2 124.3 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072025 GIL 08/02/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.19 1.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.69 5.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 279.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.59 -4.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.55 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 5.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.9 58.2 to 0.0 0.92 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.6 0.35 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 29.2% 26.1% 20.8% 17.1% 13.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 11.5% 17.9% 19.2% 4.6% 2.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 14.5% 14.7% 13.3% 7.3% 5.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 13.0% 8.0% 4.0% 5.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 13.7% 11.3% 8.6% 6.1% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072025 GIL 08/02/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##