* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * GIL EP072025 08/01/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 66 68 67 62 54 46 37 31 25 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 63 66 68 67 62 54 46 37 31 25 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 62 63 64 62 55 46 38 33 29 27 25 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 3 3 5 6 6 14 19 23 26 27 33 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -2 0 3 5 1 -1 -1 -2 -1 -4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 318 359 59 17 334 245 246 241 242 242 246 256 270 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.5 26.0 25.8 25.6 24.4 24.0 22.2 23.1 23.7 24.1 24.6 25.0 25.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 126 124 122 109 105 86 94 100 104 109 114 121 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -51.9 -52.3 -52.7 -52.6 -52.1 -52.7 -52.8 -53.4 -53.7 -54.4 -54.5 -55.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 71 70 70 68 63 52 46 39 37 34 33 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 27 27 27 27 24 21 19 16 15 13 12 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 52 51 50 52 59 55 65 56 50 27 25 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 75 79 76 65 59 39 -2 -1 -6 -26 -6 -29 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -16 -7 -2 -3 3 5 -4 -6 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1490 1568 1628 1689 1757 1962 2028 1776 1508 1270 1062 855 665 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.6 16.3 17.0 17.8 18.5 19.8 21.1 22.0 22.5 23.0 23.4 23.8 24.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 122.5 124.2 125.8 127.4 128.9 132.2 135.4 137.9 140.6 143.1 145.4 147.9 150.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 17 17 16 17 15 13 12 12 11 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 6 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -6. -9. -12. -15. -19. -22. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -9. -14. -15. -17. -18. -18. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 7. 2. -6. -14. -23. -29. -35. -39. -42. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 15.6 122.5 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072025 GIL 08/01/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.27 2.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.73 5.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 236.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.64 -5.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.51 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 5.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.02 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.8 58.2 to 0.0 0.97 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.6 0.30 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.1% 29.5% 22.0% 17.5% 13.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.2% 11.9% 8.0% 2.1% 1.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.7% 13.9% 10.0% 6.6% 5.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 11.0% 11.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 9.3% 12.4% 8.5% 6.8% 6.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072025 GIL 08/01/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##