* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * GIL EP072025 08/01/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 64 68 69 69 62 53 42 34 28 24 20 17 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 59 64 68 69 69 62 53 42 34 28 24 20 17 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 58 60 61 61 57 50 42 35 31 29 27 25 23 22 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 7 2 3 4 4 11 15 20 24 28 28 36 32 37 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -3 -2 3 4 3 0 -1 -2 -2 0 0 0 -6 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 296 303 332 80 8 309 259 250 249 231 246 250 265 271 291 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 26.7 26.4 26.0 25.5 23.8 23.3 22.5 23.3 23.7 24.3 25.0 25.4 25.9 25.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 133 130 126 121 103 97 88 96 100 107 114 118 124 124 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.3 -51.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.8 -53.2 -53.5 -53.8 -54.3 -54.9 -55.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.9 1.2 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.3 -0.3 -0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 1 2 2 3 4 5 6 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 70 71 70 69 66 58 51 45 40 37 35 36 36 35 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 27 27 28 27 27 22 20 17 15 14 12 11 9 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 52 52 54 54 59 49 60 58 45 39 29 12 0 -5 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 99 84 86 60 45 67 3 0 -6 -18 -12 -8 -4 0 -1 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -13 -16 -8 -6 -6 8 -2 -3 -4 2 -2 2 -4 3 -2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1422 1468 1532 1601 1681 1847 2025 1894 1637 1381 1129 908 743 549 395 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.7 16.4 17.1 17.8 19.2 20.5 21.4 22.3 22.7 22.9 23.3 24.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 120.7 122.3 123.8 125.6 127.3 130.5 133.7 136.7 139.3 141.9 144.5 147.0 149.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 17 18 17 17 16 14 12 12 12 12 13 15 15 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 12 7 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 28.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -0. -3. -5. -9. -12. -15. -17. -18. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -2. -6. -11. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. -15. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 14. 14. 7. -2. -13. -21. -27. -31. -35. -38. -42. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 14.9 120.7 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072025 GIL 08/01/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.38 6.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 5.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.74 8.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 204.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.67 -8.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.53 5.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 8.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 5.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.05 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 2.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.6 0.33 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 3.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.2% 43.1% 34.6% 22.1% 14.3% 23.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 11.3% 32.4% 20.1% 8.8% 5.3% 2.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 5.3% 1.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 10.6% 25.5% 18.4% 10.4% 6.6% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 16.0% 19.0% 12.0% 11.0% 9.0% 5.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 13.3% 22.2% 15.2% 10.7% 7.8% 6.7% 0.5% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072025 GIL 08/01/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##