* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * GIL EP072025 08/01/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 63 66 69 68 63 55 46 38 32 27 23 19 17 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 58 63 66 69 68 63 55 46 38 32 27 23 19 17 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 59 62 64 64 60 53 45 38 33 30 27 25 24 23 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 10 7 3 4 2 7 16 21 25 26 31 42 40 38 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 -2 -1 6 3 -1 -2 -1 -1 0 -7 -1 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 304 290 286 19 12 349 204 244 238 240 240 253 277 289 286 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.2 26.6 26.4 25.9 24.1 23.2 22.0 23.2 23.7 23.9 24.6 24.9 25.9 25.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 138 132 130 125 106 96 84 96 100 102 110 113 124 121 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -51.8 -52.2 -52.6 -52.1 -52.6 -52.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.7 -54.0 -54.6 -54.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 1 0 0 1 2 2 3 3 4 5 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 69 69 69 68 65 58 49 41 37 35 34 33 35 35 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 24 26 27 27 26 23 20 18 15 14 13 11 11 10 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 45 50 55 55 55 67 53 62 39 38 21 16 2 0 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 103 95 95 77 65 47 39 -12 -24 9 -28 -10 -16 -6 16 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -13 -16 -14 -9 -10 -2 3 -2 -5 0 -1 -2 2 -2 3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1344 1402 1459 1542 1604 1761 1967 2018 1677 1426 1234 1033 836 659 504 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.3 15.9 16.6 17.2 18.8 20.2 21.3 22.3 22.9 23.1 23.6 24.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 119.3 120.9 122.4 124.1 125.7 129.2 132.5 135.5 138.9 141.5 143.5 145.8 148.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 17 17 18 18 16 16 14 11 10 12 13 14 14 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 23 15 11 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 14 CX,CY: -11/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. -0. -3. -7. -11. -14. -17. -18. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 3. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 2. 0. -3. -7. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -12. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 14. 13. 8. -0. -9. -17. -23. -28. -32. -36. -38. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 14.6 119.3 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072025 GIL 08/01/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.42 6.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 6.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.72 7.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 215.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.66 -7.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.59 5.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 8.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.08 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 58.2 to 0.0 0.99 2.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.6 0.26 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 3.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.1% 41.2% 33.5% 26.5% 16.0% 24.0% 16.5% 0.0% Logistic: 4.2% 16.2% 10.5% 4.2% 2.2% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 6.0% 1.2% 0.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.4% 19.5% 15.0% 10.4% 6.1% 8.4% 5.5% 0.0% DTOPS: 20.0% 25.0% 17.0% 14.0% 12.0% 6.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 14.2% 22.2% 16.0% 12.2% 9.0% 7.2% 3.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072025 GIL 08/01/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##