* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * GIL EP072025 07/31/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 56 62 67 76 75 69 58 49 41 36 32 28 24 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 50 56 62 67 76 75 69 58 49 41 36 32 28 24 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 50 54 58 61 65 62 55 46 38 33 30 27 25 23 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 10 8 9 5 1 6 6 13 14 19 22 25 38 52 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -4 -2 0 0 3 4 0 1 -1 0 -1 -3 -10 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 333 331 307 302 295 359 286 204 241 225 224 229 265 279 286 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.1 28.1 27.4 26.7 26.0 24.5 24.1 22.6 23.2 23.6 24.3 24.7 25.5 26.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 147 147 140 133 126 110 106 90 96 100 107 111 121 129 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.0 -52.4 -52.4 -52.9 -53.2 -53.7 -54.0 -54.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.1 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 2 4 4 5 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 75 73 71 69 70 69 64 54 46 41 40 39 34 33 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 24 25 26 28 26 24 20 18 16 15 14 13 12 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 29 42 49 54 57 49 55 48 70 44 39 26 22 18 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 91 99 121 120 113 69 56 51 -4 -5 13 -10 6 -3 2 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -11 -12 -12 -15 -12 -8 -3 0 -3 -4 0 -1 -2 0 -9 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1284 1327 1384 1434 1476 1614 1771 1973 2017 1696 1403 1124 854 556 308 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.7 14.1 14.8 15.5 16.9 18.3 19.6 20.4 21.2 21.7 22.0 22.0 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.6 118.0 119.3 120.8 122.2 125.5 128.9 132.2 135.5 138.6 141.5 144.3 147.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 15 16 16 17 17 17 15 14 14 13 14 17 19 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 30 29 26 17 13 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 43.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 13. 11. 9. 6. 3. 1. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 4. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -9. -8. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. -1. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 10. 5. 1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -6. -6. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 17. 22. 31. 30. 24. 13. 4. -4. -9. -13. -17. -21. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 13.2 116.6 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072025 GIL 07/31/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.58 10.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 7.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.72 9.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 137.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 -10.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 108.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.70 7.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 6.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.19 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 3.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.6 0.54 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 3.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 40% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.3% 43.6% 39.8% 28.5% 19.4% 39.6% 34.3% 9.9% Logistic: 4.2% 22.3% 10.5% 6.1% 3.2% 6.7% 3.3% 0.4% Bayesian: 10.5% 5.8% 6.7% 2.1% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 10.0% 23.9% 19.0% 12.2% 7.7% 15.5% 12.6% 3.4% DTOPS: 16.0% 46.0% 34.0% 23.0% 17.0% 26.0% 10.0% 0.0% SDCON: 13.0% 34.9% 26.5% 17.6% 12.3% 20.7% 11.3% 1.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072025 GIL 07/31/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##