* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * GIL EP072025 07/31/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 58 64 71 80 82 76 64 53 44 37 32 27 23 18 N/A V (KT) LAND 45 51 58 64 71 80 82 76 64 53 44 37 32 27 23 18 N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 52 57 62 67 73 72 63 51 41 34 29 26 23 21 19 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 12 8 8 3 7 5 14 16 21 21 26 30 45 49 51 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -5 -3 -3 -1 2 8 1 0 -1 0 1 0 -5 -8 -8 SHEAR DIR 349 329 328 311 293 344 295 221 227 232 244 237 257 277 288 294 289 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.1 27.2 26.5 25.5 23.9 23.1 22.7 23.4 24.0 24.6 25.2 25.7 26.1 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 148 147 138 131 121 104 95 91 98 104 111 117 122 125 124 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -51.8 -52.6 -51.9 -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 -53.1 -53.6 -54.4 -54.8 -55.0 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.4 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 3 1 0 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 77 75 74 72 69 69 69 66 58 53 46 42 40 38 36 36 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 21 21 23 27 26 24 20 18 16 15 14 12 10 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 22 33 37 54 52 56 48 48 30 38 37 29 18 9 3 -19 -32 200 MB DIV 93 105 113 111 117 111 50 75 15 -24 -18 0 -22 -18 -23 14 -7 700-850 TADV -14 -12 -9 -12 -10 -6 -6 3 -5 -2 -2 -1 -1 -8 -3 -6 -5 LAND (KM) 1260 1280 1315 1367 1418 1547 1673 1849 2013 1874 1568 1287 1008 710 436 275 246 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.4 13.9 14.5 15.1 16.3 17.8 19.3 20.7 21.5 21.8 22.1 22.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 115.6 116.9 118.1 119.5 120.9 123.9 127.2 130.6 133.8 136.9 139.9 142.7 145.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 15 15 17 17 17 16 14 14 14 14 16 15 12 9 HEAT CONTENT 30 30 29 23 15 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 50.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 14. 12. 9. 7. 3. 1. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 0. -5. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 2. -1. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 12. 6. 1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 19. 26. 35. 37. 31. 19. 8. -1. -8. -13. -18. -22. -27. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 12.9 115.6 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072025 GIL 07/31/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.60 12.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 9.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.71 10.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 126.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 -11.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 107.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.69 8.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 7.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 5.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.22 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 3.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.6 0.63 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 4.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 57% is 8.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 60% is 10.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 24.4% 53.0% 47.0% 39.7% 26.5% 56.5% 60.2% 11.6% Logistic: 8.5% 34.4% 18.2% 11.6% 8.2% 13.3% 10.5% 1.1% Bayesian: 23.0% 11.0% 11.0% 3.9% 1.1% 1.5% 0.4% 0.0% Consensus: 18.6% 32.8% 25.4% 18.4% 11.9% 23.8% 23.7% 4.2% DTOPS: 17.0% 41.0% 30.0% 24.0% 11.0% 31.0% 30.0% 0.0% SDCON: 17.8% 36.9% 27.7% 21.2% 11.4% 27.4% 26.8% 2.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072025 GIL 07/31/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##