* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP992025 07/31/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 46 54 59 71 78 77 69 60 51 42 37 31 25 19 N/A V (KT) LAND 35 40 46 54 59 71 78 77 69 60 51 42 37 31 25 19 N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 45 48 56 62 62 55 45 37 32 28 25 22 20 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 10 7 5 1 6 8 10 18 20 24 31 33 40 38 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 -3 -3 0 -2 4 4 -1 -1 0 -1 -3 -5 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 353 333 343 350 310 6 169 279 242 248 235 231 223 245 258 272 267 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.1 26.9 26.0 24.7 23.9 22.1 23.2 23.8 24.6 25.1 25.7 25.7 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 148 147 147 135 126 112 104 85 96 103 111 115 121 121 125 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.1 -52.5 -52.6 -52.2 -52.4 -51.9 -52.5 -52.5 -53.1 -53.8 -54.5 -54.4 -54.8 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.0 -0.4 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 1 1 1 2 2 4 4 5 6 7 700-500 MB RH 81 78 77 76 74 69 68 68 64 53 43 37 33 30 31 34 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 19 20 20 24 25 25 22 20 18 15 14 13 11 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 23 28 40 47 59 61 65 53 49 39 52 36 36 26 18 8 -4 200 MB DIV 107 92 103 116 117 122 106 36 34 0 -21 -2 -12 -5 -30 14 11 700-850 TADV -12 -15 -18 -11 -9 0 -4 1 -3 -9 -7 -2 -1 -3 0 -5 -1 LAND (KM) 1241 1263 1301 1344 1398 1499 1636 1785 1958 2027 1679 1348 1025 750 541 366 263 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 114.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 13 12 14 16 17 17 17 16 16 15 14 13 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 31 30 30 29 24 13 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 52.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 15. 20. 22. 22. 20. 18. 15. 13. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 1. -4. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 6. 9. 10. 8. 5. 2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 13. 6. 1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 19. 24. 36. 43. 42. 34. 25. 16. 7. 2. -4. -10. -16. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.6 114.5 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP992025 INVEST 07/31/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.71 10.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 5.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.70 7.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 71.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 -9.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 107.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.69 6.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 3.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 4.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.25 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 2.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.6 0.65 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 3.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 33% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 57% is 9.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.0% 43.3% 32.5% 20.3% 14.4% 33.0% 57.2% 13.7% Logistic: 12.4% 55.0% 32.2% 22.7% 11.4% 31.6% 19.9% 2.4% Bayesian: 15.4% 25.8% 20.7% 8.2% 2.1% 7.7% 2.4% 0.1% Consensus: 13.6% 41.4% 28.5% 17.1% 9.3% 24.1% 26.5% 5.4% DTOPS: 8.0% 37.0% 26.0% 12.0% 6.0% 35.0% 46.0% 5.0% SDCON: 10.8% 39.2% 27.2% 14.5% 7.6% 29.5% 36.2% 5.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992025 INVEST 07/31/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##