* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP992025 07/31/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 30 36 43 51 65 77 78 73 62 52 44 37 31 24 16 N/A V (KT) LAND 25 30 36 43 51 65 77 78 73 62 52 44 37 31 24 16 N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 26 28 30 33 41 51 57 55 47 38 31 27 24 22 19 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 9 10 4 3 5 4 4 14 17 20 21 28 28 32 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 0 0 -2 -2 0 4 10 1 -1 -1 -1 -3 -5 -6 -4 SHEAR DIR 14 4 340 354 2 327 119 315 254 232 257 258 249 243 239 245 240 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.2 28.2 27.6 26.9 26.0 24.1 22.7 22.2 22.4 22.7 23.3 24.0 24.7 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 150 147 147 141 134 126 106 90 85 87 90 96 104 112 123 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 -52.2 -52.7 -51.9 -52.6 -52.0 -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 -54.1 -54.3 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.7 1.4 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 82 81 78 76 76 72 69 69 67 59 55 51 48 46 43 41 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 18 19 20 24 26 25 23 20 18 15 13 13 12 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 21 28 32 41 53 59 61 45 37 16 14 -2 -9 -19 -37 -40 -36 200 MB DIV 128 98 92 97 125 128 147 59 52 3 -4 -15 -14 -12 -15 -16 2 700-850 TADV -10 -19 -20 -16 -10 -8 0 -1 5 2 3 0 0 -2 -1 -6 -4 LAND (KM) 1182 1254 1295 1344 1394 1499 1536 1588 1640 1776 1837 1934 1782 1549 1287 1045 831 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.6 12.8 13.0 13.3 14.1 15.6 17.4 19.6 21.2 22.5 23.3 24.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.4 114.8 116.1 117.3 118.5 120.8 123.1 125.7 128.4 131.0 133.5 135.8 138.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 12 12 12 13 14 17 16 14 12 12 11 12 13 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 31 30 30 30 29 21 12 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 57.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 17. 24. 27. 28. 27. 24. 20. 17. 14. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 6. 2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 11. 12. 11. 7. 3. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 14. 7. 1. -3. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 18. 26. 40. 52. 53. 48. 37. 27. 19. 12. 6. -1. -9. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.5 113.4 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP992025 INVEST 07/31/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.80 8.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.67 4.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 43.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -6.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 108.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.69 4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.26 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.6 0.49 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 3.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 54% is 9.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 39.2% 21.0% 0.0% 0.0% 27.8% 54.2% 0.0% Logistic: 20.9% 72.9% 50.4% 40.3% 19.8% 52.2% 31.4% 7.9% Bayesian: 5.3% 21.9% 15.3% 5.7% 0.3% 6.4% 3.8% 0.4% Consensus: 8.7% 44.6% 28.9% 15.3% 6.7% 28.8% 29.8% 2.8% DTOPS: 2.0% 23.0% 14.0% 3.0% 1.0% 30.0% 46.0% 20.0% SDCON: 5.3% 33.8% 21.4% 9.1% 3.8% 29.4% 37.9% 11.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992025 INVEST 07/31/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##