* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP992025 07/30/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 35 40 46 58 70 73 71 64 52 46 39 34 28 21 N/A V (KT) LAND 25 29 35 40 46 58 70 73 71 64 52 46 39 34 28 21 N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 26 28 30 32 38 45 50 48 42 34 28 24 22 20 17 15 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 12 8 11 7 4 6 4 9 16 15 15 15 20 26 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -2 0 -2 -4 1 4 10 4 -1 0 -2 -1 -4 -5 -5 SHEAR DIR 1 13 2 343 351 317 335 199 258 211 240 256 264 241 216 229 226 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.3 28.2 26.8 25.9 23.9 22.8 22.0 22.2 22.5 22.7 23.5 24.0 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 150 150 148 147 133 124 104 91 83 84 87 89 98 103 107 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.0 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -53.2 -53.7 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.1 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 83 83 83 78 76 71 66 67 67 62 53 49 45 42 41 39 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 17 17 19 21 25 24 22 20 16 14 12 11 10 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 11 20 26 26 39 51 51 51 33 23 -5 -1 -29 -38 -52 -46 -50 200 MB DIV 132 145 123 104 113 101 124 80 50 27 -15 -27 0 -16 -6 -17 -7 700-850 TADV -11 -10 -14 -17 -16 -9 -1 -1 0 3 0 0 -1 1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1129 1234 1301 1319 1345 1393 1441 1489 1544 1638 1749 1806 1919 1773 1554 1338 1157 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 11.9 12.1 12.4 12.8 13.9 15.4 17.2 19.1 20.9 22.2 23.2 23.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.9 113.5 114.7 115.8 117.0 119.2 121.6 124.1 126.8 129.3 131.7 133.9 136.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 14 12 12 12 13 14 15 16 13 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 32 32 31 30 31 27 13 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 41.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 18. 24. 29. 30. 28. 26. 22. 18. 15. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 4. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 12. 14. 13. 10. 3. 1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 9. 5. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 15. 21. 33. 45. 48. 46. 39. 27. 21. 14. 9. 3. -4. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.7 111.9 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP992025 INVEST 07/30/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.81 8.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.59 4.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 36.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 -6.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 123.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.77 4.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.27 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.6 0.35 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 24.3% 19.1% 0.0% 0.0% 24.4% 27.7% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 27.6% 11.2% 6.1% 2.5% 15.2% 34.4% 7.0% Bayesian: 1.1% 8.8% 6.0% 1.5% 0.2% 1.7% 2.6% 0.7% Consensus: 1.4% 20.2% 12.1% 2.5% 0.9% 13.8% 21.5% 2.6% DTOPS: 1.0% 13.0% 6.0% 2.0% 1.0% 9.0% 32.0% 7.0% SDCON: 1.2% 16.6% 9.0% 2.2% 0.9% 11.4% 26.7% 4.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992025 INVEST 07/30/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##