* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992025 07/30/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 35 40 48 55 63 63 57 48 40 33 28 25 22 16 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 35 40 48 55 63 63 57 48 40 33 28 25 22 16 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 31 35 37 38 36 32 27 23 20 19 18 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 16 16 13 15 10 6 5 3 6 13 11 12 12 16 17 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 -1 0 -4 -2 0 3 5 0 0 1 0 -3 -4 -5 SHEAR DIR 349 348 347 336 314 316 265 173 265 189 226 252 268 252 255 250 245 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.5 28.0 26.8 25.3 24.6 23.4 22.6 22.4 22.4 22.8 23.2 23.8 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 154 154 151 146 134 119 111 98 89 86 86 90 94 101 105 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.3 -52.0 -52.5 -52.7 -52.1 -52.4 -51.7 -52.3 -51.8 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.5 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.4 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.0 -0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 82 80 80 79 75 71 65 64 65 66 60 57 54 49 47 46 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 15 16 18 20 22 25 23 21 18 15 13 11 10 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 6 12 11 15 20 41 44 51 49 49 19 15 -9 -23 -40 -49 -54 200 MB DIV 135 138 129 103 88 92 103 102 39 23 -17 -5 -18 2 -18 -1 -6 700-850 TADV -11 -13 -13 -12 -19 -8 -7 3 -5 1 -1 3 -1 -2 -3 -2 -3 LAND (KM) 962 1015 1063 1121 1145 1176 1284 1425 1589 1746 1904 1959 1956 1754 1547 1337 1140 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 12.0 12.5 13.0 13.5 14.8 16.1 17.4 18.5 19.7 20.7 21.7 22.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.2 110.6 111.9 113.1 114.4 117.2 120.2 123.4 126.8 129.7 132.1 134.3 136.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 13 14 15 17 17 16 14 11 11 10 10 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 34 32 31 31 29 25 10 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 31.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 10. 18. 24. 29. 31. 31. 29. 26. 22. 19. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 10. 16. 16. 13. 9. 4. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 3. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 10. 15. 23. 30. 38. 38. 32. 23. 15. 8. 3. 0. -3. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.7 109.2 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP992025 INVEST 07/30/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.82 7.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.5 34.9 to 8.5 0.43 2.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 43.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -6.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 118.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.74 4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.27 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.65 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.6% 16.0% 0.0% 0.0% 21.7% 20.9% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 12.7% 3.9% 2.2% 0.7% 5.3% 3.0% 1.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 11.8% 6.8% 0.8% 0.3% 9.0% 8.0% 0.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992025 INVEST 07/30/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##