* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP062025 06/30/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 57 62 68 77 80 77 70 59 48 40 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 51 57 62 68 77 80 77 70 59 48 40 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 50 54 59 63 71 75 73 63 52 42 34 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 9 10 9 4 3 11 15 13 11 4 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 0 -1 4 0 1 1 -2 -3 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 24 39 33 36 38 114 101 121 128 110 157 206 242 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.0 29.6 29.5 29.5 28.9 28.4 27.7 25.8 25.5 24.8 23.1 21.7 20.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 165 161 160 160 153 148 140 120 117 110 92 77 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.4 -52.0 -52.3 -52.6 -51.6 -52.0 -51.4 -52.1 -51.3 -51.8 -51.7 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 5 4 4 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 82 81 82 84 83 78 77 71 66 59 60 54 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 14 14 15 17 19 20 19 17 14 11 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 52 57 72 74 73 77 59 70 56 45 43 27 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 75 55 74 90 92 91 99 57 29 14 10 21 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -2 -1 1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 251 237 204 194 206 253 308 324 205 156 141 146 159 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.9 16.5 17.0 17.5 18.3 19.1 20.1 21.1 22.3 23.5 24.6 25.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 102.1 102.9 103.7 104.6 105.5 107.1 108.3 109.3 110.3 111.4 112.5 113.6 114.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 33 30 25 20 13 8 4 2 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 47.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 4. 0. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 7. 8. 4. 0. -3. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 11. 6. 1. -2. -5. -7. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 17. 23. 32. 35. 32. 25. 14. 3. -5. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.3 102.1 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062025 FLOSSIE 06/30/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.70 12.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 8.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 34.9 to 8.5 0.65 8.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 42.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -12.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.54 6.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 6.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 6.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.25 1.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 2.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.43 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 54% is 4.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 41% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 50% is 8.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.1% 53.5% 39.9% 26.3% 17.4% 40.6% 49.5% 13.7% Logistic: 15.3% 52.7% 31.3% 22.1% 10.9% 26.5% 8.2% 0.4% Bayesian: 9.2% 52.8% 36.2% 20.5% 8.7% 27.6% 5.1% 0.0% Consensus: 13.2% 53.0% 35.8% 22.9% 12.3% 31.6% 20.9% 4.7% DTOPS: 20.0% 52.0% 34.0% 23.0% 17.0% 19.0% 29.0% 0.0% SDCON: 16.6% 52.5% 34.9% 22.9% 14.6% 25.3% 24.9% 2.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062025 FLOSSIE 06/30/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##