* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP062025 06/30/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 47 55 61 77 84 86 82 70 57 46 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 40 47 55 61 77 84 86 82 70 57 46 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 37 40 44 48 59 71 78 74 61 50 39 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 6 7 5 5 5 14 10 10 9 5 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -2 -2 -1 -2 -2 0 3 3 1 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 70 32 6 18 25 25 115 93 85 56 97 88 164 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.7 29.7 29.4 29.0 28.6 28.0 25.3 24.9 25.0 23.3 21.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 162 162 159 154 150 144 115 111 111 94 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.4 -52.8 -52.3 -51.7 -52.3 -51.1 -51.8 -51.3 -51.9 -51.3 -51.7 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 4 4 2 2 1 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 83 84 84 82 83 86 80 76 68 61 59 55 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 14 17 15 19 21 23 24 22 19 15 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 47 39 49 57 67 73 53 70 56 51 44 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 137 132 112 102 93 98 97 110 86 36 17 7 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 -1 0 3 3 -1 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 351 330 311 286 242 226 236 284 295 194 142 143 204 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.2 14.7 15.4 16.1 17.2 18.3 19.4 20.3 21.3 22.4 23.4 24.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 100.7 101.4 102.1 102.9 103.6 105.3 106.9 108.2 109.7 110.7 111.3 112.4 114.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 9 9 8 7 7 6 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 40 40 37 34 30 21 14 7 3 1 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 63.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 14. 16. 16. 15. 13. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 11. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 3. 2. 5. 8. 13. 16. 12. 8. 3. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 8. 12. 18. 16. 8. 1. -4. -7. -10. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 12. 20. 26. 42. 49. 51. 47. 35. 22. 11. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.7 100.7 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062025 FLOSSIE 06/30/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.78 14.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 6.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 34.9 to 8.5 0.84 11.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 19.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 -13.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 115.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.73 9.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 3.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 6.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.32 2.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 2.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.55 -0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 60% is 4.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 44% is 6.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 63% is 10.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 54% is 11.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.3% 60.1% 42.4% 28.7% 21.9% 44.2% 63.0% 54.0% Logistic: 6.9% 48.9% 31.4% 23.0% 11.9% 42.7% 42.2% 1.8% Bayesian: 0.4% 11.7% 12.1% 4.8% 1.0% 5.0% 2.8% 1.1% Consensus: 7.2% 40.2% 28.6% 18.8% 11.6% 30.6% 36.0% 19.0% DTOPS: 7.0% 54.0% 42.0% 18.0% 10.0% 27.0% 29.0% 6.0% SDCON: 7.1% 47.1% 35.3% 18.4% 10.8% 28.8% 32.5% 12.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062025 FLOSSIE 06/30/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##