* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BARBARA EP022025 06/09/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 64 65 64 57 51 42 32 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 63 64 65 64 57 51 42 32 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 63 64 63 61 53 44 34 27 22 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 14 9 11 14 6 8 4 1 6 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 4 3 10 10 2 7 2 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 40 37 30 39 33 358 357 315 13 264 176 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 26.9 26.2 25.6 24.9 22.6 21.9 21.9 22.7 22.5 22.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 132 125 118 111 86 78 78 86 83 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.7 -51.6 -51.2 -51.4 -51.9 -52.0 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 3 4 2 1 0 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 67 64 65 63 57 51 44 40 37 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 14 15 16 17 15 13 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 18 17 28 43 53 80 78 89 59 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 98 76 50 46 35 -28 11 -29 -22 -11 -37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -12 -5 -11 -13 -15 -4 -10 1 1 0 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 299 276 277 299 323 356 282 306 337 378 415 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.2 17.8 18.3 18.7 19.8 20.4 20.4 20.5 20.5 20.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.6 106.3 107.0 107.6 108.2 109.3 110.2 111.2 112.0 112.6 113.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 7 8 6 4 4 3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 11 8 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 485 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 0. -4. -9. -14. -19. -23. -27. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 2. -1. -4. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 5. 4. -2. -9. -18. -28. -37. -44. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 16.6 105.6 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022025 BARBARA 06/09/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.26 2.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.5 34.9 to 8.5 0.39 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 224.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.65 -5.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.46 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 4.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.06 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.6 58.2 to 0.0 0.99 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.64 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.6% 21.7% 16.8% 14.3% 11.3% 14.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 4.4% 1.9% 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.6% 8.8% 6.3% 5.0% 3.9% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 6.3% 5.9% 4.1% 3.5% 2.9% 2.4% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022025 BARBARA 06/09/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##