* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BARBARA EP022025 06/09/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 57 58 57 51 43 37 30 24 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 56 57 58 57 51 43 37 30 24 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 56 56 55 53 47 38 31 24 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 18 16 12 10 12 14 15 5 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 1 5 8 9 14 6 10 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 39 32 40 38 33 344 322 320 352 311 343 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 27.8 27.1 26.2 25.4 23.1 21.7 22.7 22.5 23.0 23.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 142 135 125 117 93 78 87 84 89 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.6 -51.7 -51.6 -51.3 -51.8 -51.7 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 65 66 65 64 58 52 50 45 45 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 13 14 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 25 21 20 33 48 65 91 82 92 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 92 99 79 68 68 23 20 -18 -21 -21 -31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -10 -5 -8 -14 -15 -22 -13 -9 -1 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 267 264 256 273 313 386 359 444 504 562 613 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.8 17.3 17.8 18.3 19.3 19.8 19.6 19.4 19.2 19.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 104.5 105.3 106.1 107.0 107.8 109.2 110.9 112.4 113.1 113.7 114.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 10 10 9 9 8 5 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 16 11 8 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 468 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -7. -11. -14. -16. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 2. -4. -12. -18. -25. -31. -35. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 16.2 104.5 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022025 BARBARA 06/09/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.37 3.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.8 34.9 to 8.5 0.31 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 186.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.70 -5.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.56 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 4.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.09 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.3 58.2 to 0.0 0.96 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.61 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.4% 21.8% 16.3% 13.5% 10.5% 14.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 3.6% 1.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.5% 8.6% 5.9% 4.7% 3.5% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 7.0% 11.0% 6.0% 5.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 5.7% 9.8% 5.9% 4.8% 3.2% 2.5% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022025 BARBARA 06/09/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##