* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922025 06/08/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 46 52 56 61 65 66 65 59 53 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 46 52 56 61 65 66 65 59 53 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 45 50 54 56 58 56 50 43 36 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 4 4 9 13 7 6 11 7 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 3 4 1 2 8 9 11 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 24 35 23 9 11 2 320 294 235 257 195 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.5 28.9 28.3 27.7 26.2 24.4 22.4 22.0 22.9 23.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 163 160 154 148 141 125 106 84 79 88 90 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -51.3 -51.0 -51.5 -51.5 -51.5 -51.8 -51.7 -52.1 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 6 5 4 2 3 2 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 73 69 70 68 64 61 57 52 54 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 15 14 15 15 15 17 17 18 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 33 29 39 40 30 48 56 79 93 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 109 108 113 104 115 69 23 17 18 -10 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -6 -7 -14 -12 -7 -15 -14 0 -6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 277 282 267 249 260 268 331 348 357 373 407 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 11 10 9 8 6 3 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 34 31 27 20 14 7 2 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 507 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 34.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 8. 6. 4. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 7. 3. 0. -1. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 16. 21. 25. 26. 25. 19. 14. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.0 102.0 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP922025 INVEST 06/08/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.68 11.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 8.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 34.9 to 8.5 0.63 8.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 98.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 -11.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 109.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.70 8.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 4.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 5.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.21 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 58.2 to 0.0 0.99 2.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.60 -0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 48% is 3.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 19.8% 47.8% 39.3% 26.6% 17.5% 28.4% 20.3% 8.6% Logistic: 17.9% 44.5% 30.6% 20.1% 5.4% 21.4% 4.6% 0.3% Bayesian: 7.8% 19.9% 18.6% 6.5% 0.6% 3.6% 1.0% 0.0% Consensus: 15.2% 37.4% 29.5% 17.7% 7.8% 17.8% 8.6% 3.0% DTOPS: 11.0% 65.0% 53.0% 35.0% 29.0% 34.0% 3.0% 0.0% SDCON: 13.1% 51.2% 41.2% 26.3% 18.4% 25.9% 5.8% 1.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922025 INVEST 06/08/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##