* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922025 06/08/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 39 43 49 56 63 64 62 56 49 39 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 33 39 43 49 56 63 64 62 56 49 39 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 34 36 39 44 45 44 40 35 29 24 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 5 5 7 10 17 11 8 8 13 10 7 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 1 2 6 2 3 7 13 3 3 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 37 26 58 38 5 15 7 316 230 203 165 151 186 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.1 28.6 27.3 25.8 23.1 22.4 21.9 23.1 22.5 22.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 165 163 162 156 151 137 121 92 83 78 91 85 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.9 -51.9 -51.3 -51.0 -51.6 -51.1 -51.7 -51.3 -52.0 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 7 7 4 4 2 3 1 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 75 73 69 69 65 63 58 55 54 49 47 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 14 14 15 15 17 18 20 20 19 16 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 30 30 40 50 44 51 62 69 98 100 92 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 108 110 117 122 123 74 47 24 38 8 15 -15 -28 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -7 -8 -10 -3 -9 -8 -4 5 2 -2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 261 255 255 240 217 218 280 353 326 324 365 446 560 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 101.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 9 10 10 10 9 6 4 5 6 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 37 34 31 26 20 10 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 38.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 6. 10. 13. 14. 13. 12. 10. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 6. 8. 11. 11. 9. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 4. 0. -2. -3. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 9. 13. 19. 26. 33. 34. 32. 26. 19. 9. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.7 101.0 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP922025 INVEST 06/08/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.83 8.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 34.9 to 8.5 0.66 5.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 50.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -7.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 116.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.73 5.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.26 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.6 58.2 to 0.0 0.99 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 3.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.0% 39.7% 23.2% 17.2% 0.0% 24.5% 19.9% 10.9% Logistic: 8.5% 42.6% 26.1% 16.2% 4.4% 21.1% 10.0% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.4% 7.7% 6.9% 2.0% 0.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 7.3% 30.0% 18.7% 11.8% 1.5% 15.5% 10.0% 3.9% DTOPS: 2.0% 27.0% 14.0% 4.0% 2.0% 12.0% 7.0% 0.0% SDCON: 4.6% 28.5% 16.3% 7.9% 1.7% 13.7% 8.5% 1.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922025 INVEST 06/08/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##