* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922025 06/07/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 46 53 65 72 74 71 62 53 41 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 46 53 65 72 74 71 62 53 41 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 37 41 49 55 56 50 42 34 28 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 3 4 7 8 11 15 9 5 6 6 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 0 1 3 10 0 7 7 5 4 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 64 15 29 74 50 22 360 354 261 188 189 166 196 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.9 30.0 30.0 29.5 29.2 28.4 27.0 24.5 22.6 21.8 22.9 22.9 22.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 160 157 148 133 107 86 77 88 89 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.6 -51.9 -51.9 -51.3 -51.5 -51.5 -51.4 -51.8 -51.9 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 6 6 7 5 5 3 3 2 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 78 76 72 67 65 60 59 54 53 51 49 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 14 15 18 19 21 22 21 20 16 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 36 41 41 51 62 47 70 62 92 94 87 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 77 100 106 95 135 86 37 34 21 28 -7 -2 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -5 -7 -8 -9 -5 -4 -1 1 1 2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 262 241 227 229 207 192 208 280 329 322 373 428 492 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 100.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 10 10 10 9 9 7 6 5 4 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 40 36 32 28 24 14 7 2 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 490 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 54.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 5. 11. 14. 16. 15. 14. 12. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 13. 17. 14. 13. 7. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 6. 10. 15. 13. 7. 1. -3. -6. -8. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 16. 23. 35. 42. 44. 41. 32. 23. 11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.4 100.2 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP922025 INVEST 06/07/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.85 10.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 4.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 34.9 to 8.5 0.74 6.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 37.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -9.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 102.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.67 5.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.28 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.32 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 3.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.6% 40.7% 26.4% 17.5% 0.0% 25.7% 20.5% 12.4% Logistic: 11.8% 55.0% 36.8% 24.5% 7.6% 36.5% 13.0% 1.6% Bayesian: 0.6% 10.6% 9.5% 2.7% 0.4% 2.6% 0.7% 0.1% Consensus: 8.3% 35.4% 24.2% 14.9% 2.7% 21.6% 11.4% 4.7% DTOPS: 3.0% 40.0% 23.0% 9.0% 5.0% 18.0% 27.0% 0.0% SDCON: 5.6% 37.7% 23.6% 11.9% 3.8% 19.8% 19.2% 2.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922025 INVEST 06/07/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##