* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALVIN EP012025 05/30/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 43 39 36 27 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 44 43 39 36 27 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 44 42 38 34 26 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 17 23 30 29 28 33 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 3 -2 -4 -4 -4 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 187 191 185 196 199 208 213 227 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.0 27.1 26.2 24.9 23.8 23.8 27.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 144 134 125 111 100 100 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -52.5 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 57 55 53 49 44 40 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 19 17 16 11 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 28 24 25 20 7 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 114 94 64 45 31 32 3 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 8 13 12 11 9 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 483 457 438 405 386 235 71 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.2 17.0 17.7 18.5 19.3 20.9 22.5 24.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.1 108.5 108.8 109.0 109.2 109.4 109.4 109.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 7 4 2 1 0 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -2. -3. -7. -13. -21. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -6. -9. -18. -28. -36. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.2 108.1 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012025 ALVIN 05/30/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.45 3.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.5 34.9 to 8.5 0.09 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 264.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.61 -3.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.50 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.02 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 47.7 58.2 to 0.0 0.18 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.49 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.7% 14.7% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 4.9% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.4% 2.4% 1.6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012025 ALVIN 05/30/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##