* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALVIN EP012025 05/29/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 54 56 55 49 39 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 50 54 56 55 49 39 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 50 54 54 53 44 34 26 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 16 15 19 23 29 29 32 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 2 3 3 -6 -4 -8 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 177 172 165 180 177 186 194 210 219 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.4 28.3 27.6 26.2 25.3 25.2 26.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 148 147 139 124 115 113 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.4 -51.8 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 2 3 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 60 57 56 54 48 44 40 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 21 21 21 17 11 7 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 33 38 28 19 19 6 -3 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 111 131 131 112 67 30 9 15 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 3 4 8 9 8 5 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 549 522 501 465 440 370 309 163 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.3 15.9 16.7 17.4 18.8 20.4 21.9 22.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.8 107.4 108.0 108.3 108.6 108.8 108.8 108.7 108.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 7 8 8 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 32 23 15 9 5 2 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 509 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -9. -17. -24. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 11. 10. 4. -6. -18. -31. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.6 106.8 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012025 ALVIN 05/29/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.59 9.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 9.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.7 34.9 to 8.5 0.31 3.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 240.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.63 -9.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 110.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.70 8.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 6.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 6.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.13 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.5 58.2 to 0.0 0.63 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.58 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 31% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 51% is 4.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 31.2% 50.8% 37.8% 25.1% 14.8% 22.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 21.1% 15.3% 15.4% 3.5% 4.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 25.6% 3.0% 2.6% 1.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 26.0% 23.0% 18.6% 9.9% 6.5% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 12.0% 7.0% 4.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 19.0% 15.0% 11.3% 6.9% 4.2% 3.8% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012025 ALVIN 05/29/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##