* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ONE EP012025 05/29/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 40 40 37 27 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 40 40 37 27 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 32 32 28 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 7 15 15 18 29 28 29 31 33 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 0 0 -2 -2 -6 -5 -5 -3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 172 167 155 164 166 180 190 198 218 226 241 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.5 29.0 28.6 28.3 27.4 25.9 26.1 25.8 27.4 26.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 162 160 154 150 147 137 121 123 120 137 132 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.9 -51.4 -51.9 -52.3 -52.2 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 3 2 4 3 6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 64 63 59 58 52 48 43 42 37 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 21 22 23 21 19 14 9 6 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 27 22 30 21 14 5 -3 -1 0 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 133 119 105 126 91 55 19 10 15 7 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 4 3 7 3 1 0 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 607 590 581 538 506 414 341 282 148 94 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.5 14.1 14.7 15.4 16.1 17.8 19.2 20.8 22.2 23.5 24.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.0 106.8 107.5 107.9 108.3 108.6 108.7 108.5 108.5 108.5 108.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 46 37 28 20 12 4 1 1 1 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 451 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 10. 13. 14. 15. 14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. -4. -12. -18. -22. -23. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 10. 10. 7. -3. -13. -23. -28. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.5 106.0 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012025 ONE 05/29/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.78 7.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.2 34.9 to 8.5 0.52 3.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 139.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 -6.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 114.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.73 5.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.84 4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.25 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.0 58.2 to 0.0 0.88 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.65 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 3.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.1% 42.0% 21.5% 16.9% 0.0% 20.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 20.6% 32.8% 24.9% 9.4% 6.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 6.2% 2.1% 1.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 13.3% 25.6% 16.0% 9.0% 2.2% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 8.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% SDCON: 7.6% 16.8% 9.5% 5.0% 1.1% 4.0% .5% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012025 ONE 05/29/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##