* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ONE EP012025 05/29/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 39 42 45 49 45 36 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 33 39 42 45 49 45 36 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 35 35 34 28 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 7 8 16 18 29 28 28 32 31 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 -1 0 -1 0 -6 -4 -3 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 82 173 171 164 169 177 192 197 207 217 219 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.7 29.1 28.7 28.1 27.2 26.1 25.1 25.1 26.6 27.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 162 155 151 145 135 124 113 113 127 136 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.4 -52.0 -51.5 -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 4 4 2 2 3 3 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 67 64 61 57 55 47 43 39 36 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 18 21 22 21 21 16 11 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 25 28 28 30 24 15 4 6 1 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 115 124 129 111 89 57 41 19 21 32 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 0 4 2 3 8 10 4 4 2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 641 609 596 575 562 485 389 312 154 62 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.7 14.3 14.9 15.5 17.1 18.8 20.3 21.9 23.0 23.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.6 106.4 107.1 107.7 108.4 108.9 109.0 109.0 108.9 108.9 108.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 8 9 8 7 7 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 50 43 34 25 18 6 1 1 0 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 9 CX,CY: -3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 506 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 32.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 14. 15. 15. 14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -4. -6. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 4. 5. 5. 4. 0. -6. -13. -17. -18. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 3. 0. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 9. 12. 15. 19. 15. 6. -7. -18. -25. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.0 105.6 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012025 ONE 05/29/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.78 7.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.2 34.9 to 8.5 0.55 3.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 135.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 -6.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 113.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.72 4.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.30 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 58.2 to 0.0 0.95 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.58 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.3% 24.9% 19.1% 16.1% 0.0% 20.6% 14.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.4% 11.9% 6.9% 2.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 6.1% 2.1% 1.9% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.3% 13.0% 9.3% 6.3% 0.3% 6.9% 4.7% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 17.0% 9.0% 3.0% 1.0% 3.0% 3.0% 1.0% SDCON: 5.6% 15.0% 9.1% 4.6% .6% 4.9% 3.8% .5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012025 ONE 05/29/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##