* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ONE EP012025 05/29/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 36 44 52 59 66 65 50 33 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 36 44 52 59 66 65 50 33 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 35 41 46 51 55 49 38 30 24 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 3 6 8 16 24 33 30 25 27 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -1 -1 0 0 -5 -6 -6 -6 -1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 7 42 118 129 159 162 174 191 200 221 225 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.3 29.5 29.5 29.2 28.7 28.0 27.2 25.6 25.7 25.1 27.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 168 160 160 157 151 143 136 118 119 114 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.9 -52.3 -51.9 -51.4 -52.4 -52.2 -53.0 -52.6 -53.0 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 1 3 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 69 68 66 62 57 51 44 38 37 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 18 21 22 20 17 9 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 28 29 33 31 30 30 14 6 4 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 102 129 140 145 151 82 50 24 6 8 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -6 0 3 2 0 0 -1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 664 645 631 622 612 537 444 326 289 124 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.9 13.4 14.0 14.6 16.0 17.6 19.6 20.6 22.2 24.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 104.6 105.5 106.3 107.1 107.9 108.6 108.8 108.7 108.8 108.9 109.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 10 10 8 8 9 7 7 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 54 51 46 37 27 13 4 1 1 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 8 CX,CY: -2/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 55.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 1. 2. 7. 12. 16. 18. 19. 18. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -4. -5. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 5. 6. 4. 3. -6. -12. -17. -16. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 14. 7. 1. -3. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 14. 22. 29. 36. 35. 20. 3. -11. -17. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.4 104.6 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012025 ONE 05/29/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.82 19.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 12.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 34.9 to 8.5 0.74 13.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 108.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -16.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 133.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.82 14.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 3.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 8.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.38 3.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.1 58.2 to 0.0 0.98 3.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 -0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 69% is 5.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 61% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 51% is 8.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 46% is 6.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 27.9% 69.2% 61.4% 51.4% 0.0% 46.5% 24.4% 0.0% Logistic: 19.1% 43.7% 33.1% 21.1% 9.0% 2.5% 0.2% 0.4% Bayesian: 10.9% 10.5% 12.4% 4.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% Consensus: 19.3% 41.2% 35.7% 25.7% 3.2% 16.4% 8.2% 0.3% DTOPS: 4.0% 28.0% 20.0% 10.0% 3.0% 14.0% 9.0% 3.0% SDCON: 11.6% 34.6% 27.8% 17.8% 3.1% 15.2% 8.6% 1.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012025 ONE 05/29/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##