* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902025 05/28/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 23 26 31 43 49 51 42 31 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 20 20 23 26 31 43 49 51 42 31 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 24 27 29 27 23 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 7 5 6 5 18 16 26 29 28 30 27 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -6 -5 0 0 -1 0 0 -8 -4 -6 -4 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 220 230 219 210 192 188 190 180 192 200 220 230 243 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.6 30.3 29.7 29.7 29.7 28.8 28.4 26.9 26.7 27.5 28.4 27.7 27.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 170 167 161 161 161 152 148 132 129 137 146 140 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.2 -51.7 -52.1 -52.3 -51.5 -52.5 -51.7 -52.6 -52.2 -52.7 -52.7 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 4 3 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 72 72 68 67 63 57 57 56 52 47 45 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 13 14 16 23 22 21 16 13 9 5 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 26 29 26 26 26 32 27 35 41 13 24 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 42 63 105 125 146 163 106 86 44 17 17 11 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -6 -3 4 5 11 4 4 1 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 637 636 625 592 569 514 426 310 240 217 105 -22 -164 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 7 6 5 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 55 53 51 45 39 22 7 2 2 3 5 5 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 38.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -1. 5. 13. 19. 23. 25. 26. 26. 26. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 1. -1. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 12. 14. 9. 4. -2. -7. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 4. 0. -2. -3. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 3. 6. 11. 23. 29. 31. 22. 11. -1. -8. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.3 103.9 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP902025 INVEST 05/28/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 144.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.96 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 34.9 to 8.5 0.85 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 54.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.30 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 48.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.44 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.50 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 5.5% 2.4% 0.8% 0.2% 1.3% 0.8% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 1.8% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 11.0% 5.0% 1.0% 0.0% 4.0% 3.0% 7.0% SDCON: .2% 6.4% 2.9% .6% 0% 2.2% 1.6% 3.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902025 INVEST 05/28/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##