* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902025 05/28/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 26 32 40 54 60 59 44 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 20 22 26 32 40 54 60 59 44 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 20 21 21 23 25 29 31 30 26 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 9 10 10 9 13 18 18 31 26 28 29 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -6 -4 0 -1 -1 4 -4 -3 -6 -5 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 215 233 235 211 211 173 176 170 181 206 211 227 234 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.5 30.4 30.3 30.1 30.1 29.3 29.1 27.4 27.3 27.9 28.3 27.7 27.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 169 167 167 165 165 157 155 137 136 141 146 139 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.5 -52.1 -51.6 -51.9 -51.7 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -52.4 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 4 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 74 73 70 67 66 59 58 54 51 43 38 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 15 16 20 25 25 25 18 12 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 31 29 40 36 39 42 44 44 29 23 24 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 68 66 78 136 153 200 166 90 69 19 8 25 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 -2 -4 3 4 8 5 1 -1 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 509 509 514 498 484 470 400 310 201 196 112 0 -149 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 7 8 8 8 9 8 8 6 6 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 53 50 47 44 40 27 11 3 3 4 5 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 65.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -3. -3. 3. 11. 18. 23. 25. 26. 27. 27. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. -0. -2. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 8. 11. 14. 18. 10. 1. -11. -10. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 17. 9. 1. -4. -8. -11. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 12. 20. 34. 40. 39. 24. 6. -14. -18. -20. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.1 102.9 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP902025 INVEST 05/28/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 146.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.98 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 34.9 to 8.5 0.77 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 48.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 100.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.65 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 46.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.42 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.54 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 17.1% 6.3% 3.2% 1.8% 12.4% 8.7% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 5.8% 2.2% 1.1% 0.6% 4.1% 2.9% 0.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902025 INVEST 05/28/25 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING